Stock daily read

What happened with LVWR today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

LVWR in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

LiveWire Group sells electric two-wheelers for adult riders and children. Most revenue comes from STACYC, whose core products are children’s electric balance bikes; it also sells an adult pedal-assist electric bike. Electric motorcycles form the smaller business, with models including LiveWire ONE and S2. Both businesses also sell related parts and accessories.

Independent dealers and distributors buy products from LiveWire to resell to riders. Wholesale sales provide most of the company’s revenue, alongside direct online sales and motorcycle sales through its own dealership. The motorcycle dealer network draws largely from Harley-Davidson’s traditional network, so LiveWire depends on those dealers to attract customers and sell and service its motorcycles.

Harley-Davidson, or H-D, is also LiveWire’s majority shareholder and the exclusive motorcycle manufacturer under their manufacturing agreement. LiveWire buys its S2 motorcycles from H-D, while STACYC uses contract manufacturers in Taiwan and China. These arrangements make partner production central to the business and limit LiveWire’s ability to switch motorcycle manufacturers. LiveWire has not achieved positive operating cash flow and needs additional capital to finance operations and product development.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in LVWR’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

LVWR says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

LiveWire’s results hinge on winning riders for electric motorcycles against rivals including Zero, while STACYC electric bikes currently provide most of its revenue.

  • LiveWire depends on Harley-Davidson to exclusively manufacture its S2 electric motorcycles; Harley-Davidson also consolidates LiveWire and sells premium motorcycles to overlapping rider buyers. Watch S2 production and demand: from calendar 2027, LiveWire must meet annual minimum volumes for each product or pay shortfall fees.

  • BRP competes with LiveWire for electric-motorcycle buyers, selling Can-Am electric motorcycles through powersports dealers and explicitly naming LiveWire as a rival. Watch its Can-Am electric-motorcycle business rather than its broader sales of snowmobiles and watercraft when assessing competition for LiveWire.

Agenda

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    LiveWire Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    LiveWire's report will show whether electric-motorcycle sales and revenue per bike are improving together, giving its loss-making motorcycle business firmer support.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    LiveWire’s Fed rate decision matters because it can shift interest on the company’s floating-rate H-D loan, changing what LiveWire pays and the cash it has for operations.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Harley-Davidson, Inc. earningsHOG

    Harley-Davidson's report will show how its production and premium-motorcycle demand are faring, bearing on LiveWire's S2 supply and the rider buyers the two companies share.