LTRX in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with LTRX today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Lantronix Inc supplies hardware, software and services for drones, critical-infrastructure monitoring and enterprise networks. Equipment manufacturers build its computing and connectivity modules into their own products; businesses also buy complete systems to connect and oversee equipment. Most sales go through distributors that resell to other sales partners and end customers. Winning a place in a manufacturer's product can bring orders throughout that product's life, while complete-system sales often depend on individual projects.
Lantronix also earns recurring revenue from software and support services. Its Percepxion cloud platform manages connected equipment, including gateways used by a major U.S. mobile-network operator to monitor backup-power systems at cell sites. Nero Global Tracking provides GPS-based vehicle and asset tracking for fleet operators, municipalities and industrial customers. The company is working to expand recurring software and services revenue.
Sales depend on a relatively small group of distributors and customers, with one customer contributing a significant share. Lantronix owns no manufacturing facilities and relies on outside manufacturers and some single-source components to deliver products. Its drone and defense business also depends partly on customers winning government contracts. Eligibility for government procurement can require compliance with rules restricting certain foreign-sourced components, while wireless-product sales in some markets require regulatory approval.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Digi International and Lantronix compete for equipment makers’ and enterprises’ spending on embedded connectivity modules, industrial networking equipment and remote device management. Watch Digi’s IoT Products & Services revenue and subscription push for clues to demand in these overlapping markets.
Semtech competes with Lantronix to supply device makers, enterprises and solution providers with IoT connectivity modules, gateways, routers and connected services. Its IoT Systems and Connectivity sales are the relevant demand signal for Lantronix, rather than its other semiconductor businesses.
Airgain competes with Lantronix in embedded connectivity, gateways and asset tracking with cloud device management, serving enterprise and vehicle customers. Watch Airgain’s asset trackers and AirgainConnect Fleet, along with whether its cloud offerings generate recurring revenue; Lantronix’s Nero Global Tracking serves fleet operators, municipalities and industrial customers across North America.
Inseego competes for enterprise connectivity spending with cellular routers, gateways and cloud software that overlap Lantronix’s IoT systems and management software. Watch its Fixed Wireless Access Solutions and SaaS offerings for signs of demand for cellular connectivity managed through the cloud.
Silicom and Lantronix compete to have their edge hardware built into equipment makers’ networking and data-infrastructure products. Watch Silicom’s edge-platform design wins: Lantronix’s embedded designs typically take nine to 24 months to secure and can then earn revenue throughout the customer product’s life.
Ericsson’s Cradlepoint business competes with Lantronix to provide enterprise and vehicle customers with gateways that connect their equipment through cellular networks. Cradlepoint’s enterprise and vehicle deployments are the relevant area to watch for this rivalry.
Cisco and Lantronix compete for enterprise and industrial customers’ connectivity spending, but Cisco’s broader networking portfolio makes it a less focused comparison. Watch Cisco’s switching, routing and wireless business rather than treating its security and collaboration results as signals for Lantronix.
Lantronix depends on Marvell to manage production in Taiwan of large-scale-integration chips used in its outsourced product supply chain; Marvell sells chip designs while outside manufacturers make them. Watch news about that chip production, rather than Marvell’s overall revenue, for the direct connection to Lantronix’s supply.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fed rate decisions matter to Lantronix because its floating-rate SVB facility and term loan are tied to the Prime Rate, affecting what it pays when it borrows.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the Fed’s policy rate is higher than expected, borrowing costs can rise for Lantronix when it draws on its facilities, though the 5% rate floor limits the effect of rate declines below that level.
If it comes in below expectations
If the Fed’s policy rate is lower than expected, borrowing costs can fall for Lantronix when it draws on its facilities, but the 5% floor can limit the savings.
Silicom Ltd earningsSILC
Silicom's report will show whether equipment makers are still choosing edge-network platforms and how actively it is competing with Lantronix for embedded designs.
Focus on Silicom's edge-platform design wins, not just its current sales. More wins would show equipment makers are still choosing these platforms, while also showing Silicom is pursuing designs Lantronix wants; fewer wins would mean less evidence of design activity and less competitive pressure from Silicom. Lantronix designs typically take nine to 24 months to secure, so this speaks to future opportunities and competition, not immediate revenue.
Lantronix Inc earningsThis company
Lantronix sells embedded products, IoT systems and software services, and this report will show whether those sales are turning into more gross profit after product costs.
Read revenue alongside gross profit. If both rise, Lantronix is selling more while retaining more after product costs; if revenue is flat or falls and gross profit weakens too, project orders or product sales are not supporting the business. The key is whether sales are converting into more gross profit, not revenue alone.
Inseego Corp. earningsINSG
Inseego's report will show demand for cellular routers and cloud-managed services, spending that overlaps with Lantronix's IoT systems and management software.
Read Inseego's Fixed Wireless Access Solutions alongside its SaaS offerings. Strength in both would show customers are buying cellular equipment and paying for cloud services, confirming demand in a market where Lantronix competes; solid equipment sales but weaker SaaS would mean service demand is not keeping pace; weakness in both would point to a harder market for similar spending.
Airgain, Inc. earningsAIRG
Airgain's report will show whether fleet customers are buying connected trackers and cloud services, spending that overlaps with Lantronix's Nero Global Tracking business.
Read Airgain's asset trackers and AirgainConnect Fleet alongside recurring revenue from cloud offerings. Strength in both would show fleet customers are buying devices and continuing to pay for services, supporting demand in Lantronix's market while confirming Airgain as a competitor; strong device sales but weak recurring revenue would mean service payments are not keeping pace; weakness in both would give a weaker demand signal for Lantronix's tracking business.
Marvell Technology, Inc. earningsMRVL
Marvell Technology manages Taiwan production of some large-scale-integration chips in Lantronix's outsourced supply chain, so production updates could signal whether those chips remain available.
Look for specific comments about production of the relevant chips in Taiwan; Marvell's overall revenue is not a supply gauge for Lantronix. Smooth production would ease concern about chip availability for Lantronix products, while reported constraints or delays could make timely supply harder and raise the risk of late shipments or higher costs. Without such production details, Marvell's overall results do not establish Lantronix's supply position.