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What happened with IVR today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

IVR in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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Company

Company overview

Invesco Mortgage Capital owns securities backed by pools of mortgage loans. Most of its portfolio consists of long-term, fixed-rate residential mortgage securities, with a smaller allocation to commercial mortgage securities. Payments come from the underlying mortgages, with principal and interest guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantees do not carry the full backing of the U.S. government.

The company finances most of these holdings by transferring securities to lenders and agreeing to buy them back later at a higher price—an arrangement called a repurchase agreement. Its earnings depend on investment income exceeding funding costs, but changes in the securities’ market values also affect results. Because the financing is short-term, the company depends on lenders renewing it; falling collateral values can require it to provide additional cash or securities.

Borrowing costs generally respond to interest-rate changes faster than income from its largely fixed-rate portfolio. Mortgage prepayments also affect income and the returns available when principal is reinvested. The company uses hedges to manage interest-rate exposure, but they do not eliminate it or generally protect against changes in mortgage spreads.

Invesco Mortgage Capital has no employees and relies entirely on its external manager to run its investments. Maintaining REIT tax status requires it to distribute most taxable income and meet asset and income tests. Its exemption from investment-company registration also restricts what assets it can hold and how it operates.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in IVR’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
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Moat

IVR says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • AGNC Investment and Invesco Mortgage Capital face closely matched return and funding risks: both buy securities backed by agency-guaranteed home loans and borrow against them through sale-and-repurchase agreements. Watch AGNC’s borrowing costs against its mortgage-security income for signs of pressure on the spread Invesco also earns.

  • ARMOUR Residential REIT mirrors Invesco Mortgage Capital’s exposure to fixed-rate mortgage securities and borrowing costs: both use borrowed money to hold agency-backed securities funded by mortgage payments, with financing arranged through sales and agreed repurchases. ARMOUR’s fixed-rate mortgage portfolio is the part to watch when judging how rate changes affect Invesco’s investment income relative to funding costs.

  • Dynex Capital and Invesco Mortgage Capital share exposure to agency-backed residential and commercial mortgage securities, with fixed-rate home-loan securities dominating both portfolios. Dynex receives borrowers’ principal and interest through these securities; changes in its fixed-rate residential holdings’ value offer a comparison for Invesco’s core portfolio.

  • Orchid Island Capital and Invesco Mortgage Capital expose earnings and portfolio value to the same central mortgage-market risks: both borrow to invest in agency-guaranteed home-loan securities and earn the gap between investment income and funding costs. Watch Orchid’s net interest income and portfolio value as rates and homeowners’ early repayments change.

  • Annaly Capital Management’s Agency group is the closest comparison for Invesco Mortgage Capital: it uses borrowed funds to invest in agency-backed residential and commercial mortgage securities and earn income above borrowing and hedging costs. Focus on that group’s investment spread rather than Annaly’s loan-credit or mortgage-servicing businesses when assessing Invesco’s core earnings.

  • CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT CORPORATION shares Invesco Mortgage Capital’s exposure to agency-backed home-loan securities, but its investments in rights to income from mortgage servicing change its response to rates and early repayments. Its mortgage-security segment is therefore the cleaner comparison for Invesco than its combined results.

  • PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust shares meaningful exposure to the agency-backed mortgage securities that drive Invesco Mortgage Capital, but also earns from servicing rights, credit investments and buying newly originated loans to pool and resell. Watch its Agency MBS holdings within interest-rate-sensitive strategies, rather than treating all its mortgage earnings as a guide to Invesco.

  • Chimera Investment and Invesco Mortgage Capital both borrow to earn mortgage investment income above funding costs, but Chimera adds substantial borrower-credit and loan-origination exposure through loans and securities without agency guarantees. Its investment portfolio’s interest income less borrowing expense is the closer comparison for Invesco, not HomeXpress’s mortgage-origination results.

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  • MFA Financial shares Invesco Mortgage Capital’s exposure to mortgage-security values and financing conditions, but relies more on borrowers repaying residential loans held directly, alongside Agency and non-Agency securities. At December 31, 2025, whole loans were approximately 71% of MFA’s investment-related assets, so its mortgage-security holdings are a more useful comparison for Invesco than its overall loan performance.

Agenda

todayTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced

    Annaly Capital Management. Inc. earningsNLY

    Annaly Capital Management's Agency group invests borrowed funds in agency-backed mortgage securities, and its report will show the spread between security income and borrowing and hedging costs that Invesco Mortgage Capital's core business also depends on.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Invesco Mortgage Capital, the Fed’s policy-rate decision signals the direction of short-term borrowing costs on the repurchase agreements that finance most of its mortgage-backed securities, affecting the spread between what its investments earn and what it pays lenders.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. earningsThis company

    Invesco Mortgage Capital earns a spread when mortgage-security income exceeds its funding costs, and this report will show whether that spread is holding up its core interest income.