Stock daily read

What happened with CHMI today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CHMI in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation invests its own capital and borrowed money in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities and mortgage servicing rights. These assets generate most of its revenue through interest and servicing fees. Its current securities portfolio consists entirely of Agency RMBS—mortgage-backed securities supported by government-sponsored housing agencies—and primarily holds fixed-rate mortgage pools. It earns the difference between asset income and financing and hedging costs.

The company also buys rights to collect fees for administering mortgages. Government-sponsored housing agencies or mortgage owners pay these fees, generally on loans that remain current. Its subsidiary Aurora holds servicing rights, but Cherry Hill hires third-party subservicers to perform the work rather than servicing loans itself. It retains the fees after servicing costs.

Income depends on borrowing costs, continued access to financing, borrowers’ repayments and the performance of outside servicers. Early mortgage repayments shorten the income stream from its assets. Owning servicing rights requires agency consent and continued compliance with capital and servicing requirements. Maintaining real estate investment trust (REIT) status and exemptions from investment-company registration also limits which assets it can hold and how it invests.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CHMI’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CHMI says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Annaly Capital Management shares both sides of Cherry Hill’s investment model: both collect interest from Agency mortgage securities and fees from rights to service home loans. Watch Annaly’s Agency investment spread and mortgage-servicing income for clues to the pressures on Cherry Hill’s two income streams.

  • PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust shares Cherry Hill’s exposure to interest rates by combining Agency mortgage securities that pay interest with rights that earn mortgage-servicing fees. Its interest-rate-sensitive segment is the useful comparison for Cherry Hill, rather than its business buying newly originated loans from lenders and reselling them.

  • Orchid Island Capital and Cherry Hill both borrow to buy Agency residential mortgage securities funded by homeowners’ payments, so mortgage spreads, borrowing costs and early repayments affect both earnings and book values. Orchid’s net interest margin shows how much income this type of portfolio retains after financing costs.

  • ARMOUR Residential REIT shares Cherry Hill’s exposure to mortgage spreads and interest-rate hedging: both use borrowed money to hold Agency securities backed by fixed-rate home loans and earn mortgage interest. Watch ARMOUR’s financing and hedging costs to gauge the pressure on returns from Cherry Hill’s fixed-rate securities.

  • Dynex Capital mirrors Cherry Hill’s fixed-rate mortgage-securities exposure: both invest primarily in Agency residential securities that pass homeowners’ payments to investors. Changes in Dynex’s fixed-rate Agency holdings offer a comparison for the valuation and early-repayment risks in Cherry Hill’s securities portfolio.

  • Invesco Mortgage Capital and Cherry Hill both earn the gap between interest from Agency residential mortgage securities and the costs of borrowing and hedging. Watch Invesco’s asset returns against those costs: a narrower gap signals pressure on the same source of Cherry Hill’s income.

  • Rithm Capital and Cherry Hill both depend on mortgage-servicing cash flows and early repayments, but Rithm keeps fee-earning servicing rights when it sells home loans, while Cherry Hill buys those rights and hires others to service the loans. Watch the retained servicing rights and servicing revenue in Rithm’s Origination and Servicing segment for a comparison with Cherry Hill’s servicing income.

  • Chimera Investment shares Cherry Hill’s exposure to borrowed-money mortgage investments and fee-earning servicing rights, but its substantial loan holdings and loan-origination business make it a broader comparison. Focus on Chimera’s Investment Portfolio interest income after borrowing costs, rather than HomeXpress’s mortgage-origination results.

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  • MFA Financial and Cherry Hill both borrow to invest in residential mortgage securities and collect income from mortgage payments, but MFA’s larger whole-loan business makes borrowers’ ability to repay more important to its results. Compare MFA’s residential-securities returns and financing costs with Cherry Hill, rather than treating losses on loans it owns directly as equivalent.

Agenda

in 3 daysFri, Oct 23

  1. Time to be announced

    Rithm Capital Corp. earningsRITM

    Rithm Capital retains some servicing rights after selling home loans, so its servicing revenue offers a comparison for Cherry Hill’s servicing rights, which it owns but has third parties service.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Cherry Hill, the Fed’s policy rate shapes what it pays on short-term RMBS funding and what it earns on mortgage assets, while also affecting MSR values through expected loan prepayments.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. earningsIVR

    Invesco Mortgage Capital’s returns on Agency mortgage securities after financing and hedging costs show whether the spread income Cherry Hill also earns is under pressure.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT CORPORATION earningsThis company

    Cherry Hill earns from the gap between mortgage-security income and financing costs, and from mortgage-servicing rights, so this report shows how much each stream leaves after its costs.