Stock daily read

What happened with IDA today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

IDA in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

IDACORP’s subsidiary Idaho Power accounts for nearly all of its operations. Idaho Power generates and buys electricity, then delivers it through its transmission and distribution network to homes, businesses and irrigation customers in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon. These customers provide most of its revenue, overwhelmingly from Idaho. It also sells surplus electricity to wholesale buyers and charges for transmission service. Idaho Power has agreed to sell its Oregon distribution business and certain transmission assets to OTEC, subject to regulatory approvals and other closing conditions.

Idaho Power generally has exclusive service rights in its territory in exchange for serving all customers there. State regulators set retail rates to allow recovery of authorized costs and a reasonable return on utility investment; federal regulators oversee wholesale rates and transmission service. Cost recovery and returns are not guaranteed. Power-cost adjustments pass most supply-cost changes through to customers, but collection can come after the company pays those costs.

Weather affects both electricity demand and supply: summer cooling and irrigation drive the main demand peak, while snowpack and river flows determine hydropower output. Lower water availability can require more costly generation or purchased electricity. Hydropower also requires federal licenses, and Idaho Power is seeking a renewed license for the Hells Canyon Complex, its largest hydropower source.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in IDA’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

IDA says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Idaho Power’s results hinge on Idaho electricity demand, recovery of investment through regulated rates and hydropower availability; watch PacifiCorp, its operating partner in the jointly owned Jim Bridger plant and coal mine.

  • Avista Corporation shares Idaho Power’s exposure to Idaho utility regulation and western power supply: both generate and buy electricity for Idaho customers, and their transmission systems connect directly. Avista’s purchased-power costs offer a read on regional supply pressures that also affect Idaho Power.

  • Portland General Electric and Idaho Power both generate, buy and deliver electricity to retail customers under Oregon rate regulation, while regional wholesale prices affect their power trading. Watch Portland General Electric’s rate decisions for how Oregon regulators allow electricity costs and investment to be recovered from customers.

  • NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. and Idaho Power face western power-supply conditions through directly connected transmission systems; both generate and buy electricity to sell to utility customers. NorthWestern’s electricity purchases and transmission operations are the relevant businesses to watch, rather than its natural gas operations.

  • Pinnacle West Capital’s APS and Idaho Power share a retail-first power business: both generate and buy electricity for regulated customers, then sell surplus power wholesale. APS’s surplus-power sales offer a comparison for Idaho Power’s wholesale revenue, which falls when surplus generation or market prices decline.

  • OGE Energy Corp.’s OG&E and Idaho Power both generate and deliver electricity to retail customers, with regulated returns and mechanisms that pass most fuel and purchased-power costs to those customers. OG&E’s fuel-cost recovery is a useful comparison, but Idaho Power’s delay in collecting or refunding these costs can still move cash flow even when earnings are largely protected.

  • Evergy and Idaho Power both earn primarily from regulated electricity service, using their own generation and networks to serve customers in protected retail territories. Watch Evergy’s Kansas and Missouri retail business as a comparison for customer demand within this model, not competition for Idaho Power’s customers.

  • Black Hills Corporation’s electric utilities and Idaho Power both combine their own generation with purchased electricity to serve regulated retail customers in western states. Watch Black Hills’ long-term power-purchase agreements for how it fills customer needs beyond its own plants’ output—a supply choice Idaho Power also makes.

  • Xcel Energy’s western electric utilities and Idaho Power both build and operate generation and transmission to meet retail demand under regulated rates. Xcel’s electricity-network investment offers a comparison for Idaho Power’s expansion, where construction and financing costs arrive before completed projects enter customer rates.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    OGE Energy Corp. earningsOGE

    OGE Energy’s report will show whether regulated customer collections are keeping up with fuel and purchased-power costs, a useful read on cost recovery and cash flow at IDACORP’s Idaho Power.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s decision on short-term interest rates matters to Idaho Power because higher rates can make the debt and credit it uses to build and maintain its electric system more expensive.

in 10 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    IDACORP, Inc. earningsThis company

    IDACORP earns nearly all its operating results from Idaho Power, and this report shows whether regulated customer revenue is keeping pace with power costs and grid investment.