Stock daily read

What happened with HYFM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

HYFM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. supplies growing media, nutrients, lighting and other products used to control growing conditions. Its paying customers are mainly retailers and commercial resellers in the United States and Canada, which sell the products onward to growers. Most orders come through its online wholesale platform. Regularly replenished consumables generate most sales, rather than long-lasting equipment. House brands account for more than half of revenue and generally earn higher gross margins than the third-party brands it distributes.

The business depends heavily on cannabis cultivation: cannabis-industry participants ultimately buy most of the controlled-environment equipment and supplies it sells. Oversupply in that industry has reduced cultivation and demand for Hydrofarm’s products. Its term loan prohibits direct sales to U.S. cannabis-industry participants, making retailers and resellers central to how it reaches that market.

Continued operations also depend on generating cash and obtaining additional financing. Hydrofarm has disclosed insufficient capital to fund future operations without additional investment and substantial doubt about its ability to continue operating. A missed term-loan interest payment resulted in default, giving lenders rights that could include demanding repayment or taking secured assets.

Read allShow less
Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in HYFM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

HYFM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Hydrofarm’s results hinge chiefly on cannabis cultivation and growers’ replenishment spending, both under pressure from oversupply and reduced cultivation.

  • The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company competes with Hydrofarm through Hawthorne, selling nutrients, lighting and other hydroponic supplies into the same indoor-growing market that Hydrofarm serves through retailers and resellers. Hawthorne’s sales offer a read on demand for those supplies, rather than Scotts’ broader consumer lawn and garden business.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s decision on its benchmark interest rate matters to Hydrofarm because it can change the interest charged on the company’s floating-rate Term Loan, affecting cash available for operations.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company earningsSMG

    The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company’s report will show, through Hawthorne’s sales, how demand is changing for indoor-growing supplies it sells into the same market as Hydrofarm.

in 23 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Hydrofarm Holdings Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    Hydrofarm’s report will show whether retailers and resellers are ordering more growing supplies and whether the business is recovering enough margin to cover its costs.