Stock daily read

What happened with HCI today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

HCI in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

HCI Group’s Homeowners Choice Property & Casualty Insurance Company and TypTap Insurance Company collect premiums from homeowners in return for covering property damage and liability claims. Most revenue comes from insurance premiums, with investment income providing a smaller contribution. The insurers use part of the premiums to buy reinsurance, which transfers some insured losses to other insurers.

HCI also manages CORE and Tailrow, policyholder-owned insurance exchanges whose members share one another’s risks. It handles functions such as underwriting, policy administration and claims without owning equity in the exchanges. Its majority-owned subsidiary Exzeo sells insurance software and operating services to insurers and their agents, and arranges reinsurance. HCI also uses Exzeo’s technology in its own insurance businesses.

The business is concentrated in Florida, making hurricane losses, adequate premium pricing and the cost and availability of reinsurance central to its earnings. Much of its historical revenue came from policies taken over from Citizens and other insurers, followed by renewals. State regulators control insurance rates and require adequate capital, limiting pricing and expansion. HCI’s parent company relies on cash from subsidiaries, whose distributions are also restricted by insurance regulation.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in HCI’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

HCI says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

HCI’s results hinge on Florida hurricane losses, reinsurance costs and homeowners market conditions, while Citizens is an important source of growth through policies transferred to HCI.

  • Universal Insurance Holdings competes with HCI for premiums paid by Florida homeowners, so both face closely aligned storm-loss and underwriting conditions. Watch Universal’s homeowners claims and the cost of buying protection against large catastrophe losses—reinsurance—for a read on the pressures facing HCI.

  • Slide Insurance Holdings and HCI compete for coastal homeowners and commercial residential property premiums, and both grow by taking over existing policy portfolios as well as writing new policies. Watch Slide’s portfolio acquisitions and its estimates of the cost of passing policy risks to reinsurers: these show the balance between adding premiums and paying for protection that also matters to HCI.

  • American Integrity Insurance Group competes with HCI for Florida homeowners and the agents who sell them residential property policies. Its Florida policy count and premiums are useful markers of competition in HCI’s main market; Florida accounted for 96.5% of American Integrity’s in-force premium at December 31, 2025.

  • HCI relies on Exzeo Group’s software to assess risks, administer policies and process claims, and owned approximately 82.5% of Exzeo at December 31, 2025. Exzeo sells technology and operating services to property insurers and their agents, with a significant portion of revenue coming from HCI-affiliated insurers, so its underwriting, management and claims-service revenue is closely tied to HCI’s insurance operations.

  • Heritage Insurance Holdings overlaps with HCI in eastern and Gulf markets, collecting premiums to insure personal and commercial residential properties. Watch Heritage’s residential premiums, geographic concentration of policies and cost of protection bought from reinsurers for signs of the pricing and catastrophe-risk pressures in markets HCI also serves.

Agenda

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HLDG, INC. earningsUVE

    Universal Insurance’s report will show how homeowners’ claims and reinsurance costs are changing in Florida, a read on underwriting pressure HCI also faces.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s decision signals the direction of borrowing costs across the economy, which can affect HCI’s interest income as its investments mature and are reinvested, as well as interest paid on its debt.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    HCI Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    HCI earns mainly from homeowners’ insurance premiums, and this report will show whether more earned premiums are still turning into underwriting profit or being absorbed by claims and expenses.