Stock daily read

What happened with FOSL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

FOSL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Fossil Group’s business centers on traditional watches, which generate most of its sales. It develops products under its own brands, including FOSSIL and SKAGEN, and fashion brands it licenses, including MICHAEL KORS and EMPORIO ARMANI. Jewelry and leather accessories contribute a smaller share. The company has exited smartwatches to focus on traditional watches.

Department stores, specialty retailers and distributors buy its products for resale. Consumers also buy directly through its stores, brand websites and third-party online platforms. Owned and licensed brands contribute broadly similar amounts of revenue, making access to other companies’ brand names an important part of the business. Michael Kors and Armani products account for substantial sales. License agreements require royalties and other commitments; Michael Kors can withdraw rights if specified sales requirements are not met.

Most watches and jewelry are made to Fossil’s specifications by independent manufacturers in China, without long-term factory contracts. The business therefore depends on these manufacturers delivering products and on consumers accepting its designs. Its debt agreements also restrict additional borrowing, dividends, certain investments and asset sales.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in FOSL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

FOSL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Fossil's results hinge chiefly on traditional-watch demand and licensed-brand appeal, with Citizen and Swatch important watch rivals missing from this list.

  • Movado competes with Fossil for fashion-watch shoppers and wholesale shelf space worldwide: both sell watches under their own brands and brands they license. Movado's Watch and Accessory Brands sales offer a read on demand in the watch market where Fossil competes.

  • Garmin competes for consumers' wristwear spending with its fitness and outdoor watches, even though Fossil has left smartwatches to focus on traditional watches. Watch demand within Garmin's fitness and outdoor businesses is the part to watch for competitive pressure on Fossil, rather than Garmin's aviation, marine or automotive sales.

Agenda

in 22 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Fossil Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    Watches make up more than four-fifths of Fossil Group’s sales, and this report will show whether its core watch business can steady sales while sustaining improved product margins.

in 27 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track how much consumers spend at stores, and stronger or weaker spending can change demand for Fossil’s watches, jewelry, handbags and sunglasses sold through wholesale and retail channels, affecting product revenue.

in 34 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced

    Movado Group, Inc. earningsMOV

    Movado’s Watch and Accessory Brands sales will show whether fashion-watch demand and wholesale shelf space are holding up in the market it shares with Fossil Group.