FIGR in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Figure Technology Solutions helps homeowners borrow against the equity in their homes, directly under the Figure brand or through lenders using their own brands. Its software handles applications, verifies information, assesses credit and prepares loan documents. Nearly all lending is in home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, and home-equity lending and the technology supporting it generate substantially all revenue.
Figure charges borrowers origination fees and lender partners fees tied to the amount of loans they originate or trade. It also originates or buys loans, finances them with short-term credit facilities, then sells them to loan buyers or investors in pooled loans. Loan-sale gains are a major source of earnings; sale proceeds repay the short-term borrowing. Figure continues collecting and processing payments on most platform loans, earning servicing fees from their owners. Figure Connect brings loan sellers and buyers together in an electronic marketplace and earns transaction-based fees. Figure records loan information on Provenance Blockchain alongside traditional loan documentation.
The business depends on demand for HELOCs, partners continuing to use the platform, and lenders and investors continuing to fund and buy loans at acceptable prices. A small group of large partners supplies much of origination volume, and a concentrated group of buyers purchases much of the loans sold. Partners generally pay only when they use the platform and have no long-term financial commitments. As a non-bank lender, Figure must follow state licensing and lending rules; it cannot use banks’ exemption from state interest-rate limits for its subordinate-lien HELOCs.
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Figure’s results depend chiefly on demand for borrowing against home equity, partner lending volumes and investors’ willingness to buy its home-equity lines of credit (HELOCs), rather than cryptocurrency activity.
Better Home & Finance Holding Company competes with Figure for consumers borrowing against their homes and for lenders using proprietary loan-origination technology; Better earns revenue by selling loans to buyers, while Figure charges partner lenders volume-based technology and processing fees. Better’s Platform lending volume shows the scale of its push into partner channels where Figure also operates.
LendingTree, Inc. shares Figure’s exposure to home-equity borrowing demand and lenders’ appetite to fund and attract borrowers: it matches consumers with lenders at no charge to consumers, while Figure makes home-equity loans and charges partner lenders for technology that helps originate and distribute loans. LendingTree’s home-equity loans and credit lines within its Home segment are the relevant business to watch, rather than its broader consumer and insurance offerings.
Housing Starts (Sep)
Figure’s home-equity lending depends on demand for HELOCs—home equity lines of credit—so housing activity can affect the originations, loan sales and serviced balances that generate its fees and gains.
Expected1.31MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.31M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. More construction activity than expected can support housing demand and home-equity borrowing, potentially increasing Figure’s HELOC originations, loan-sale gains and servicing fees.
If it comes in below expectations
Less construction activity than expected can weigh on housing demand and home-equity borrowing, potentially reducing Figure’s HELOC originations, loan-sale gains and servicing fees.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Figure’s rate-sensitive warehouse funding costs and demand for HELOCs—home equity lines of credit—shape the cost of funding loans and the balances on which it earns servicing fees.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
A higher-than-expected policy rate can raise Figure’s warehouse borrowing costs and weigh on HELOC demand, potentially squeezing loan economics and slowing growth in serviced balances and fees.
If it comes in below expectations
A lower-than-expected policy rate can ease Figure’s warehouse funding costs and support HELOC demand, potentially improving loan economics and supporting growth in serviced balances and fees.
LendingTree, Inc. earningsTREE
LendingTree’s report will show whether consumers are seeking home-equity loans and lenders are vying for those borrowers, two forces that shape demand for Figure’s partner-originated loans.
Focus on home-equity loans and credit lines in LendingTree’s Home segment, not its overall results. Stronger activity would suggest borrower demand and lenders’ willingness to compete for those borrowers are supportive of Figure’s partner channel; weaker activity would point to pressure on both. LendingTree matches borrowers with lenders rather than making the loans, so this is a market signal, not direct proof of Figure’s own volume.
Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. earningsThis company
Figure Technology Solutions earns platform fees from partner lenders as well as fees and gains from originating and selling home-equity loans; this report will show whether partner and Figure Connect growth is broadening that revenue mix.
Read partner-branded loan volume and ecosystem and technology fees alongside Figure Connect volume, loan-sale gains and servicing fees. Rising partner activity and platform fees, with servicing fees supported by a growing serviced balance, would show both transactions and ongoing servicing expanding. If growth instead comes mainly from loan-sale gains, or partner volume and fees weaken, the business remains more reliant on selling loans and a small number of large partners.