Stock daily read

What happened with ECPG today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ECPG in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Banks and other lenders sell Encore Capital Group consumer debts they have written off, accepting far less than the amount owed. Encore then owns the right to collect those debts: consumers’ repayments, rather than fees from the original lenders, provide its main source of money. Debt purchasing generates nearly all its revenue. Midland Credit Management runs its U.S. purchasing and recovery business, while Cabot Credit Management operates in Europe. The United States is its largest revenue source.

Encore estimates how much it can recover before setting a purchase price. It contacts consumers directly, offers payment plans or sometimes discounts, and also pursues legal action. A significant share of revenue comes from collecting court judgments against consumers. Cabot also earns a smaller stream of fees by collecting accounts on behalf of lenders.

The business depends on buying debt cheaply enough for repayments to cover purchase and collection costs, and on consumers being able to pay. Purchases can be concentrated among a few large sellers, making continued access to their portfolios important. Collection licenses, debt time limits and account-documentation requirements restrict what Encore can pursue. Its purchased debts are generally unsecured, so consumer bankruptcy often prevents recovery.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ECPG’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ECPG says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Encore’s results hinge on the supply and purchase prices of defaulted consumer debt and consumers’ ability to repay it, primarily in the United States and Europe.

  • PRA Group, Inc. competes with Encore for unpaid consumer loan portfolios from lenders in the United States and Europe; both earn money by buying the debt and collecting consumers’ repayments. Watch PRA’s portfolio purchase prices and collections in those markets for clues to Encore’s buying conditions and recovery prospects.

  • Jefferson Capital, Inc. competes with Encore to buy defaulted consumer debts from lenders, including in the United States and United Kingdom, and both earn returns from consumers’ repayments. Watch the prices Jefferson agrees to pay for recurring purchases of debt portfolios: these contracts compete for the steady supply Encore also seeks.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s rate decision signals whether borrowing costs are rising or falling; for Encore, higher rates can raise interest on variable-rate debt and reduce what its debt-purchasing business earns after costs.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Encore Capital Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    Encore Capital buys overdue debt at a discount and collects from consumers, so this report shows whether its growing portfolios are returning cash as expected.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    PRA Group, Inc. earningsPRAA

    PRA Group competes with Encore Capital for unpaid consumer-loan portfolios in the U.S. and Europe, so its purchase prices and collections offer clues to Encore's buying and recovery conditions.