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Ecopetrol is Colombia’s largest oil producer and is controlled by the Colombian government. Most of its operations are in Colombia. It exports crude mainly to refiners in Asia and the United States, while its Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries turn its own and purchased crude into fuels and petrochemicals sold mainly in Colombia. Refined products are its largest revenue source, followed by crude oil. Organización Terpel, which buys refined products and transportation services, is a significant customer, but does not account for most sales.
Its subsidiary Cenit moves crude and refined products through pipelines, mainly for the group, and also charges outside customers for transportation. Ecopetrol sells natural gas to distributors, industrial customers and gas-fired power plants. Colombian rules limit its ownership of gas transportation companies, so it depends on third parties to provide that infrastructure.
Through ISA, Ecopetrol also owns electricity-transmission networks and operates toll-road concessions in Latin America. ISA earns mainly regulated payments for keeping transmission infrastructure available, rather than payments tied to how much electricity customers consume. Its road concessions earn toll revenue.
The oil business depends on production volumes, international oil prices and the difference between refined-product prices and crude costs. Colombian gasoline and diesel prices are regulated; differences from international-parity prices create balances with the government’s Fuel Price Stabilization Fund. Collection of amounts owed to Ecopetrol depends on government settlement and funding, with no certainty about payment timing. During a Colombian fuel shortage, its refineries must serve local demand before exporting.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Beyond oil prices and Colombian policy, watch Ecopetrol’s controlled electricity-transmission subsidiary ISA and fuel buyer Terpel, which accounted for 11% of group sales in 2025.
Petrobras shares Ecopetrol’s exposure to oil prices and fuel-refining margins, and the two jointly develop and sell gas from Colombia’s Sirius field. Watch Sirius permits and the final investment decision: gas-sales contracts cover periods starting in 2030, but production depends on permits and confirmed commercial viability.
Ecopetrol’s international oil and gas output partly depends on acreage it develops jointly with Occidental in the Midland and Delaware basins. Watch the partners’ drilling plans: the Midland extension calls for 39 development wells from July 2026 through July 2027.
GeoPark and Ecopetrol both sell Colombian crude and partner in several Llanos Basin blocks, so international oil prices and local operating conditions reach both. GeoPark’s Colombian production and crude selling prices offer a focused read on those pressures, with its sales priced against benchmarks including Brent and adjusted for transport and quality.
Gran Tierra Energy and Ecopetrol both earn substantial revenue from Colombian oil, exposing them to the same country’s regulation and operating conditions. Watch Gran Tierra’s Colombian revenue rather than its whole-company results: Colombia generated 70% of its revenue in 2025.
ExxonMobil competes with Ecopetrol for international buyers of crude, fuels and petrochemicals, while also partnering with it in Colombian exploration. Its fuel and petrochemical business is the relevant comparison for Ecopetrol’s sales from the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries.
Cenovus and Ecopetrol both produce heavy crude and sell refined fuels, so heavy-oil selling prices and the gap between fuel prices and crude costs matter to both. Watch Cenovus’s heavy-oil refining margins, which capture both heavy-crude discounts and refined-product spreads.
Suncor and Ecopetrol both combine substantial heavy-oil production with refining, linking their results to crude selling prices and fuel margins. Watch Suncor’s sales of bitumen to refiners in North America and Asia alongside its refining results, rather than treating it as a pure oil producer.
TotalEnergies and Ecopetrol both produce oil and gas and sell refined fuels, so higher crude prices can help production revenue without necessarily helping refining. Watch how quickly TotalEnergies’ fuel selling prices adjust to crude costs—the key distinction between its production and refining results.
Shell and Ecopetrol compete for international energy customers buying oil, gas, refined fuels and chemicals, sharing exposure to hydrocarbon prices and downstream margins. Shell’s Chemicals and Products business is the closer comparison for Ecopetrol’s refined-fuel and petrochemical sales than its broader energy businesses.
Eni and Ecopetrol sell crude, natural gas and manufactured fuels to domestic and international customers, leaving both exposed to oil and gas prices and fuel margins. Eni’s crude trading also supplies its refineries, so separate its production results from the margins it earns turning crude into fuel.
BP and Ecopetrol both earn money producing oil and gas and refining and selling fuels, sharing commodity-price exposure and refining-margin cycles. Watch BP’s customers & products results separately from oil production: that business includes refining and customer-facing fuel sales.
Canadian Natural and Ecopetrol both sell substantial heavy-oil output whose prices depend on crude markets and refinery demand. Watch Canadian Natural’s heavy-crude selling prices as a comparison for Ecopetrol, whose heavy crude represented about 75% of Colombian crude production in 2025.
Ecopetrol buys pipes used in oil wells and Rig Direct services from Tenaris, whose principal Colombian customer is Ecopetrol; their supply agreement was renewed for two years in February 2025. Watch Tenaris’s Colombian drilling commentary for pressure on Ecopetrol’s field activity from exploration policy, protests and security concerns.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)
For Ecopetrol, U.S. crude and gasoline inventories show how much oil and fuel is stored, helping indicate supply and demand that can move benchmark-linked prices for the crude and refined products it sells.
If U.S. crude or gasoline inventories rise, that points to looser supply and possible pressure on benchmark-linked prices for Ecopetrol's crude and refined products; if they fall, it points to tighter supply and possible price support.
Cenovus Energy Inc. earningsCVE
Cenovus’s heavy-oil refining margins show how crude discounts and refined-product spreads combine in a business mix Ecopetrol also has.
Watch Cenovus’s heavy-oil refining margins and any explanation of heavy-crude selling prices and refined-product spreads. Wider margins would show better returns from processing crude, a favorable signal for Ecopetrol’s refining business; narrower margins would indicate weaker refining economics. But a heavy-crude discount can reduce what a producer receives while lowering a refiner’s feedstock cost, so the margin alone cannot show whether Ecopetrol’s crude sales improved or worsened.
GEOPARK LIMITED earningsGPRK
GeoPark’s Colombian production and crude prices offer a read on local conditions shared with Ecopetrol’s Colombian oil business.
Read GeoPark’s Colombian production alongside its crude selling price, which is adjusted for transport and quality against benchmarks including Brent. Strength in both would suggest supportive local production and selling conditions for Ecopetrol’s crude business; weakness in either would signal pressure, but differences in fields, oil quality and transport mean the two companies need not move in lockstep.
Tenaris S. A. earningsTS
Tenaris’s Colombian drilling commentary will show whether field activity is supporting demand for the pipes and services Ecopetrol buys.
Listen for Tenaris’s comments on Colombian drilling, well-pipe orders and Rig Direct services. Firm activity and demand would show that field work is supporting this supplier and would be a positive signal about the operating backdrop for Ecopetrol; weaker activity or demand could mean slower work and fewer supplier orders, but Tenaris’s orders do not establish a change in Ecopetrol’s production or investment plans.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation earningsOXY
Occidental’s report can show whether the Midland development plan it shares with Ecopetrol is progressing, shaping the timing of potential U.S. output.
Read Occidental’s comments on Midland drilling plans, investment and project progress. If the joint development proceeds as planned, Ecopetrol’s U.S. acreage is more likely to contribute output on the intended schedule; delays, lower investment or a changed plan would make the timing and scale of that output less certain. The partner’s progress is a signal, not confirmation of Ecopetrol’s production.
Ecopetrol S.A earningsThis company
Ecopetrol’s report will show whether crude and fuel sales, refining performance and operating cash flow can together withstand price and cost pressure.
Read crude and refined-product volumes and realized prices alongside refinery throughput and refining margins, then check operating cash flow. Steady sales and refining results with steady cash flow would show that operations are helping offset price or cost pressure; weakening sales or refining results alongside weaker cash flow would show less room to fund investment and other needs.
PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS earningsPBR
Petrobras’s report can show whether permits and investment decisions for the Sirius gas project it shares with Ecopetrol are advancing, a condition for planned future supply.
Watch for Petrobras updates on Sirius permits, commercial viability and the final investment decision. Progress through those gates would strengthen the basis for planned gas sales starting in 2030; continued delays would leave future supply dependent on unresolved conditions, not available as near-term gas.
