Stock daily read

What happened with DLX today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

DLX in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Deluxe Corporation makes business and personal checks and sells them through banks and directly to customers. Checks are its largest individual revenue source; together with business forms, supplies and branded promotional products, printing brings in most of its revenue. Its customers are mainly in North America. Cash from printing supports investment in its other businesses, even as digital payments reduce demand for checks.

For small and medium-sized merchants that need to accept payments, Deluxe processes card and other electronic transactions and charges mainly by transaction value or a fixed fee per transaction. This income depends on consumer spending and the reach of its merchant network. It also sells businesses tools to collect payments, make disbursements and match receipts to accounting records; its R360+ platform brings receivables tools together in one interface.

Deluxe also earns revenue by using data and analytics to run targeted marketing campaigns that help clients acquire customers and sell more to existing ones. Banks are the largest customer group in this business, which also serves large consumer brands.

Card processing depends on maintaining Visa and Mastercard network access through registrations, bank sponsorships and, in some cases, direct membership. Network rules can limit how Deluxe serves merchants, while privacy rules restrict the personal data it can use and share for marketing.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in DLX’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

DLX says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Deluxe still relies heavily on cash from checks and other printed business products, so watch print volumes and pricing alongside growth in digital payments and marketing that helps banks win customers.

  • Fiserv competes with Deluxe for merchants paying to accept payments and banks buying technology to process payments and manage cash, making it a rival to watch in both customer groups.

  • ACI Worldwide competes with Deluxe for merchant and financial-institution customers that pay for tools to accept and process payments, check for fraud and match payments to accounts. Watch ACI's bank and merchant payment software business for signs of demand for the digital-payment tools Deluxe also sells.

  • Deluxe depends on Visa's network to process Visa card payments for merchants, and both earn fees tied to card-payment activity. Watch Visa's payment volumes as a signal of the consumer spending that drives Deluxe's merchant transactions; losing the required network access could stop Deluxe serving affected merchants.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    VISA Inc. earningsV

    Visa’s report will show the strength of card-payment activity, a demand signal for the transaction-processing fees Deluxe collects from merchants through Merchant Services.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Deluxe, a Fed rate decision tracks the cost of borrowing across the economy, which can change interest expense on its rate-exposed debt and the cash left for operations and investment.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Fiserv, Inc. earningsFISV

    Fiserv’s report will show how merchants and banks are buying payment-processing and cash-management tools, illuminating the market Deluxe competes in for those customers.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Deluxe Corporation earningsThis company

    Deluxe’s report will show whether growth in Merchant Services and data-driven marketing is still offsetting the drag on revenue and profit from falling demand for checks and promotional products.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track consumer spending at retailers; for Deluxe, that spending can affect Merchant Services fees tied to merchants’ transaction values and demand for Print promotional products.