Stock daily read

What happened with CTM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CTM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Castellum, Inc. helps government agencies develop and maintain software and military systems, protect information, and modernize technology used in national security missions. Substantially all revenue comes from U.S. federal, state and local government work. Most government sales pass through teaming partners rather than directly to agencies. Contracts pay Castellum for costs incurred plus a fee, hours worked and materials, or an agreed fixed price.

A small group of Navy contracts supplies most revenue: NAVAIR/NAWCAD work on aircraft launch and recovery systems, NAVAIR PMA-290 Special Missions work, and NAVSEA engineering for military sensor systems. These assignments make ongoing Navy programs especially important to the business.

Castellum wins much of its work through competitive bidding. Continued revenue depends on government funding, contract renewals and winning new competitions when contracts expire. Subcontract work also depends on prime contractors keeping and fulfilling their government contracts. Many assignments require company and employee security clearances; losing those clearances can prevent awards or continued work.

Read allShow less
Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CTM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CTM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Castellum’s results depend heavily on Navy engineering and intelligence contract funding and renewals, with privately held Peraton another competitor to watch outside this list.

  • CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA competes with Castellum for government spending on cybersecurity, intelligence, software engineering and mission support. Watch CACI’s new contracts and repeat business with U.S. government agencies, its main customers, for signs of competition in the work Castellum sells.

  • Booz Allen Hamilton competes with Castellum for federal contracts to secure computer systems, engineer defense technology, analyze data and modernize digital systems. Its federal cybersecurity and engineering contract news is more relevant to Castellum than its commercial cyber business.

  • Northrop Grumman competes with Castellum to supply defense technology for intelligence and military operations, but relies much more on hardware development, production and support contracts. Its Mission Systems business is the closer comparison to Castellum’s engineering and technical services for military sensor systems.

  • CGI Inc.’s federal business competes with Castellum for government contracts to connect computer systems, protect them and modernize IT. That federal work is the relevant comparison, rather than CGI’s extensive international commercial operations.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    CACI INTERNATIONAL CLA earningsCACI

    CACI International's report will show whether U.S. agencies are continuing to buy cybersecurity, intelligence and engineering support, work it competes with Castellum to win.

in 17 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Castellum, Inc. earningsThis company

    Castellum earns most of its revenue from government technology work, and this report will show whether added contract work brings in more gross profit after labor and subcontractor costs.