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What happened with COSM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

COSM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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Company

Company overview

Cosmos Holdings Inc. supplies prescription medicines, over-the-counter drugs and other healthcare products that pharmacies and distributors buy for resale. Its subsidiary Cosmofarm handles the wholesale business, which brings in most of the group's revenue. Almost all revenue comes from Greece.

The company also manufactures generic medicines through CANA and sells its own supplement brands, Sky Premium Life and Mediterranation. Doc Pharma exclusively manufactures those supplements. Manufacturing and own-brand sales are smaller businesses than wholesale, but carry higher margins.

A relatively small group of pharmaceutical wholesalers accounts for a significant share of sales, giving those buyers influence over pricing. One wholesaler also holds exclusive rights to promote and distribute Sky Premium Life in Greece. Wholesale operations depend on licensing: subsidiary SkyPharm's Greek wholesale pharmaceutical licence expired, and the regulator rejected its renewal application.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in COSM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

COSM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Cosmos Holdings Inc.’s results chiefly depend on Greek pharmaceutical wholesale volumes, while Doc Pharma supplies its proprietary nutraceuticals and licenses cancer-treatment patents.

  • Cencora offers a European comparison for Cosmos Holdings Inc.: both sell medicines to healthcare customers, with Cosmos focused on Greek pharmacies. Watch Cencora’s European pharmaceutical wholesale business for clues about prescription demand and wholesale margins.

  • ZeroStack Corp. shares Cosmos Holdings Inc.’s exposure to European medicine demand and cross-border wholesale margins: its German subsidiary Phatebo imports and exports medicines, while Cosmos sells to pharmacies and wholesalers and exports pharmaceuticals. Watch ZeroStack’s Commercial and Wholesale business, rather than its Digital Assets and AI business, for this comparison.

  • Cardinal Health provides a comparison for Cosmos Holdings Inc.’s medicine-distribution business, but its pharmaceutical sales serve the United States while Cosmos is concentrated in Greece. Both sell prescription and over-the-counter medicines to pharmacies and healthcare providers; Cardinal’s Pharma results are the relevant place to watch prescription volumes and distribution margins.

  • McKesson is a wholesale-business comparison rather than a close geographic rival for Cosmos Holdings Inc.: both sell branded, generic and over-the-counter medicines to pharmacies, but McKesson serves North America while Cosmos is concentrated in Greece. Its North American Pharmaceutical results offer a comparison for generic-drug pricing and distribution margins, not Greek pharmacy demand.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Fed rate decisions matter to Cosmos Health because higher or lower U.S. interest rates can change what it pays on its mostly floating-rate loans and how much cash debt service uses.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Cencora, Inc. earningsCOR

    Cencora’s report will show what European medicine demand and wholesale margins look like, offering a comparison for Cosmos Health’s Greece-focused wholesale business.

in 25 daysFri, Nov 13

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Cosmos Holdings Inc. earningsThis company

    Cosmos Health’s report will show whether its pharmaceutical manufacturing and own-brand products are adding enough profit beyond wholesale to help cover the company’s operating costs.