Stock daily read

What happened with CLFD today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CLFD in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Broadband providers use Clearfield’s products to protect, organize and connect fiber as they build and maintain networks. Its range includes the Clearview Cassette, and its modular designs and factory-fitted connectors are intended to simplify installation and reduce work in the field. Almost all revenue comes from products sold for broadband providers, predominantly in the United States. Community broadband providers are its largest customer market, with cable operators and large regional providers also contributing substantial sales.

Providers buy directly from Clearfield or through authorized distributors. Two distributors account for a substantial share of sales, but neither is obligated to make future purchases. Orders therefore depend on providers’ network projects and capital spending, rather than committed recurring purchases.

Government broadband subsidies can influence when customers start projects and place orders. For certain products to be purchased and used by customers under the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program, they must meet the domestic-content requirements of the Build America, Buy America Act.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CLFD’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CLFD says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Clearfield’s results hinge on broadband providers’ fiber deployment spending and inventory cycles; Corning, CommScope and Hexatronics Group are competitors to watch beyond this list.

  • Belden’s PPC Broadband competes with Clearfield’s FieldShield for broadband providers’ spending on fiber connections. Belden’s Broadband Solutions business, which serves broadband and wireless providers, is the part to watch for this rivalry rather than its industrial automation business.

  • Amphenol competes with Clearfield for broadband-network spending by selling fiber connectors and connection systems, and through Charles Industries, network cabinets. Watch its fiber-connectivity and cabinet products, where it challenges Clearfield’s FieldSmart, CraftSmart and FiberFlex offerings.

  • ADTRAN and Clearfield both depend on broadband providers building fiber networks: ADTRAN supplies the access electronics, while Clearfield supplies products that protect, organize and deliver the fiber. ADTRAN’s Access & Aggregation Solutions revenue is the line to watch for spending on the networks Clearfield serves.

  • Nokia competes with Clearfield’s FieldSmart and also sells fixed-access technology to telecom providers whose fiber deployments need Clearfield’s fiber-management and delivery products. Watch Nokia’s fixed-access business for signs of those providers’ fiber deployment spending, rather than treating all its network infrastructure sales as a guide.

Agenda

in 3 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Nokia Corporation earningsNOK

    Nokia’s fixed-access business will show whether telecom providers are continuing fiber deployments, which also create demand for Clearfield’s fiber-management and delivery products.

in 10 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Belden Inc. earningsBDC

    Belden’s Broadband Solutions business will show whether providers are spending more on fiber connections, where its PPC Broadband products compete with Clearfield’s FieldShield.

in 36 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Clearfield, Inc. earningsThis company

    Clearfield’s report will show whether broadband providers’ fiber-network orders are still lifting sales enough to spread its manufacturing costs over more products.