Stock daily read

What happened with BURL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

BURL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Burlington Stores serves shoppers looking for current-season branded clothing, footwear and home goods at prices below those of conventional retailers. Virtually all sales come from its Burlington stores, and it operates exclusively through physical stores rather than online selling.

Instead of committing most purchases before the season, its buyers purchase much of the assortment in-season as opportunities arise. This lets them adjust to demand and refresh the selection, encouraging shoppers to return to see what is new. The business depends on finding quality merchandise cheaply enough to maintain both lower selling prices and a profitable markup, then selling it before heavy markdowns are needed. Burlington does not depend on one supplier, but it has no long-term vendor purchase contracts guaranteeing continued access to goods or favorable prices.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in BURL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

BURL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Ross Stores and Burlington compete for value-seeking shoppers buying discounted branded apparel, footwear and home goods, and both buy opportunistically when suppliers offer deals. Ross's buying terms for branded goods are worth watching as a window into the purchasing opportunities available to Burlington.

  • TJX Companies' TJ Maxx and Marshalls compete with Burlington for shoppers seeking discounted branded apparel and home goods in frequently changing assortments. Watch how TJX's buying close to the time goods are needed limits markdowns—the same buying flexibility matters to Burlington's changing merchandise offer.

  • Kohl's competes with Burlington for families' spending on moderately priced apparel, footwear, accessories and home goods. Its sales of national-brand goods through stores and Kohls.com are the closest comparison with Burlington's discounted branded merchandise.

  • Macy's puts price pressure on Burlington's apparel, accessories and home goods through department-store markdowns and Backstage, which sells merchandise at discounted prices. Watch Macy's markdowns on branded goods: full-price department stores can cut prices close to Burlington's.

  • Dillard's competes with Burlington for family apparel, shoes and accessories through its department stores and clearance centers. Its women's apparel and shoe sales provide a concrete comparison for demand in categories Burlington also sells.

  • Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and Burlington both depend on bargain shoppers and opportunities to buy discounted merchandise, though Ollie's focuses on household goods rather than apparel. Watch Ollie's access to closeouts and excess inventory from suppliers: that offers a view of the supply of bargains behind its changing assortment.

Agenda

in 24 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced

    Dillards Inc. earningsDDS

    Dillard's report will show whether women's apparel and shoe sales hold up, giving Burlington a read on demand in two categories both stores sell.

in 30 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced

    TJX Companies, Inc. (The) earningsTJX

    TJX Companies' report will show whether its discounted apparel and home goods sell without heavier markdowns, a read on how Burlington's closest off-price rival is holding shoppers and merchandise margin.

in 36 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    BURLINGTON STORES, INC. earningsThis company

    Burlington earns nearly all its sales through its stores, and this report will show whether comparable-store sales growth is keeping pace with gross margin or relying on heavier markdowns.

in 44 daysWed, Dec 2

  1. Time to be announced

    Macy's Inc. earningsM

    Macy's report will show whether it is cutting prices on branded goods, revealing how much department-store markdowns may narrow Burlington's price advantage.