What happened with BTU today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Peabody Energy supplies coal used to generate electricity and make steel. Thermal coal, used mainly by power generators, brings in most of its revenue; metallurgical coal for steelmaking is another substantial business. Its U.S. thermal mines sell mainly to electric utilities, while its seaborne operations primarily serve export markets. Both businesses contribute substantially to revenue, although U.S. thermal mines sell far more coal by volume.
Customers buy most of Peabody’s mining output under long-term supply agreements. These contracts do not necessarily lock in prices: export-market prices are often renegotiated annually or quarterly, and some agreements adjust prices using indices or production costs. Cash earnings therefore depend on coal prices as well as the amount customers buy and the cost of mining and delivery.
The business relies on continued coal use in electricity generation and steelmaking. Peabody also needs government permits and financial guarantees covering mine reclamation and other obligations. Failure to maintain required guarantees can invalidate mining permits and halt operations.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Peabody depends heavily on seaborne coal prices and Asian electricity and steel demand, with Glencore and Whitehaven Coal key international rivals to watch.
Core Natural Resources, Inc. competes with Peabody for U.S. power generators’ coal purchases and international sales of coal for electricity and steelmaking. Its export sales offer a view of the overseas markets Peabody also serves.
Alliance Resource Partners LP competes with Peabody to sell coal for electricity generation to U.S. utilities, including from their overlapping Illinois Basin operations. Watch its Illinois Basin production for a view of competing coal supply in that region.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. competes with Peabody to sell hard coking coal to steelmakers in international markets. Its premium coal’s realized selling prices offer a comparison for Peabody’s steelmaking-coal business, though Warrior attributes its pricing advantage to product quality.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. and Peabody both sell steelmaking coal to domestic and international steel and coke producers. Alpha’s Met segment sales include coal it mines as well as coal it buys, processes and resells, so its volumes are not simply a measure of competing mine output.
Ramaco Resources, Inc. competes with Peabody for steel mills’ and coke plants’ coal purchases in domestic and export markets. Watch its metallurgical-coal business for exposure to steel demand, rather than its separate rare-earths and critical-minerals development.
Hallador Energy Company’s Indiana mines compete with Peabody’s Other U.S. Thermal business to sell fuel to power plants. Its Coal Operations, which supply plants in the Midwest and Southeast United States, are the relevant comparison—not its separate electricity business.
Natural Resource Partners L.P. shares Peabody’s exposure to coal prices and production activity, but earns money by collecting royalties from miners working its mineral properties rather than selling mined coal itself.
ArcelorMittal buys Australian coal from Peabody for its integrated steelmaking operations, making it a direct source of customer demand. Its steel sales to automotive, construction and machinery businesses offer a downstream view of the demand behind those coal purchases.
Alliance Resource Partners LP earningsARLP
Alliance Resource Partners LP's report will show whether Illinois Basin coal supply is intensifying competition for Peabody's sales to U.S. utilities.
Watch Alliance Resource Partners LP's Illinois Basin production and sales. Rising output and sales mean more coal competing for the same utility buyers, making Peabody's sales in the region harder; declines ease that supply pressure, but do not alone show that power-plant demand has strengthened.
Peabody Energy Corporation earningsThis company
Peabody's report will show whether the prices and tons sold across its coal businesses are supporting segment earnings together.
Pair revenue per ton in each segment with segment Adjusted EBITDA, the company's non-GAAP measure of segment performance. Rising revenue per ton alongside stronger EBITDA would show that better selling prices are lifting segment earnings; if tons sold rise but revenue per ton and EBITDA do not follow, extra volume is not overcoming price or cost pressure.
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. earningsHCC
Warrior Met Coal's report will show what international steelmakers are paying for premium coking coal, a pricing reference for Peabody's metallurgical-coal business.
Watch Warrior Met Coal's realized coking-coal prices alongside Peabody's revenue per ton in Seaborne Metallurgical. Stronger Warrior prices point to a firmer market for premium coal, but its product-quality premium means the prices are not directly interchangeable; weaker prices signal more pressure in the steelmakers' buying market, making improvement in Peabody's metallurgical-coal revenue harder.
ArcelorMittal earningsMT
ArcelorMittal's report will show whether demand for its steel supports the operations that buy Australian coal from Peabody.
Watch ArcelorMittal's steel sales to automotive, construction and machinery customers. Stronger sales point to firmer downstream steel demand that may support its steel mills' purchases of Australian coal from Peabody; weaker sales mean less support along that customer-demand path.
Industrial Production MoM (Oct)
Industrial production and capacity use track how much factories, mines and utilities are operating; stronger activity can lift demand for Peabody’s coal from industrial facilities and steelmakers, while weaker activity can reduce sales.
If activity is strong, it points to firmer demand for industrial inputs and potentially more coal purchases from Peabody’s industrial customers and steelmakers; if activity is weak, it points to softer demand and potentially fewer purchases.
