Stock daily read

What happened with BH today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

BH in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Biglari Holdings Inc. earns most of its operating revenue from restaurants, chiefly Steak n Shake, alongside the smaller Western Sizzlin chain. Customers pay for meals at company-operated locations; franchisees pay to operate under the brands. Steak n Shake also transfers company-operated restaurants to individual franchise partners, collecting an upfront payment, sales-based fees and a share of profits. Traditional franchise agreements provide fees and royalties rather than that profit-sharing arrangement.

The company also earns insurance premiums through businesses including First Guard, which insures commercial trucks, and Southern Pioneer, which covers property and liability risks. Insurance earnings depend on pricing policies to cover claims and expenses. Southern Oil and Abraxas Petroleum produce oil and gas, with earnings closely tied to commodity prices. Maxim mainly earns from licensing its brands, with licensing projects arriving irregularly.

Alongside these operating businesses, Biglari Holdings invests its own capital, mostly through The Lion Fund and The Lion Fund II. These funds generally own common stocks and may concentrate investments in a few companies. Access to the invested capital is subject to multi-year lock-ups that the general partner can waive. Chairman and CEO Sardar Biglari controls the partnerships and makes the company’s major investment and capital-allocation decisions.

The parent company relies largely on cash from subsidiaries. Insurance laws limit distributions from its insurers, and Steak n Shake’s credit agreement restricts dividends to the parent. Biglari Holdings also monitors and structures its investments to avoid being regulated as an investment company, a status that would restrict its operations and relationships.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in BH’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

BH says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Biglari Holdings’ results also hinge materially on investments in The Lion Fund and The Lion Fund II, so restaurant rivals alone cannot capture its investment, insurance and oil-price exposure.

  • McDonald’s competes with Biglari Holdings’ Steak n Shake for customers buying burgers and fries; both also collect fees from franchise operators tied to restaurant sales.

  • Restaurant Brands International’s Burger King competes with Biglari Holdings’ Steak n Shake for burger customers, while both parent companies collect fees from franchise operators. Burger King’s system-wide sales are the line to watch for the scale of that competing burger business.

  • Dine Brands Global’s IHOP and Applebee’s compete with Biglari Holdings’ Steak n Shake for customers seeking affordable American meals; both companies collect fees from franchise operators tied to restaurant sales.

  • Brinker International’s Chili’s competes with Biglari Holdings’ Steak n Shake for burger customers and value-priced meals. Watch Chili’s news on burgers and its 3 for Me meals for changes in the competing offer.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Brinker International, Inc. earningsEAT

    Brinker International’s report will test whether Chili’s burgers and 3 for Me meals are drawing the value-minded customers Steak n Shake also seeks.

in 17 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Biglari Holdings Inc. earningsThis company

    Biglari Holdings’ report will show whether its restaurant, insurance and oil-and-gas businesses contribute earnings apart from swings in its investment partnerships.