BBVA in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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What happened with BBVA today?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) takes deposits and lends to individuals, businesses and public institutions. Customer deposits supply most of its funding, and borrowers’ interest payments, less funding costs, generate most of its income. It also charges customers for services such as card payments, transfers and managing investments.
Mexico and Spain together generate most of BBVA’s income, with Mexico the largest contributor. It operates in Mexico through BBVA Mexico and has a substantial Turkish business through Garanti BBVA. Its lending business depends on demand for credit, borrowers’ ability to repay and the gap between lending rates and funding costs.
BBVA must meet minimum capital, liquidity and funding requirements. Local rules also limit how subsidiaries can send earnings to the parent; dividend transfers from Turkey, Argentina and Venezuela are subject to restrictions.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
BBVA’s results hinge chiefly on banking conditions in Mexico and Spain, where CaixaBank is an important rival missing from this list.
Santander competes directly with BBVA for household and business customers in Spain and Mexico, offering loans, deposits and financial services in both markets.
Citigroup competes with BBVA Mexico through Banamex; Citi and BBVA also vie to lend to companies and handle their payments and trade transactions.
ING competes with BBVA for retail banking customers in Spain and corporate banking clients across Europe, taking deposits, providing mortgages and business loans, and handling payments and trade transactions.
HSBC competes with BBVA for individual and business banking customers in Mexico, and for international companies’ payments and trade transactions.
Banco BBVA Argentina is BBVA’s Argentine banking subsidiary, so its loans to individuals and companies and its peso exposure feed into the parent’s results. Watch SME lending and loan yields alongside the peso: Argentine-peso depreciation and lower loan yields were the main reasons BBVA’s South American net interest income fell in euro terms in 2025.
Deutsche Bank competes with BBVA to lend to European companies, manage their cash and finance their trade, with some multinational borrowers shared by both banks. Its corporate lending business is worth watching: both banks are lenders on Telecom Argentina’s syndicated loan.
Banco Santander S.A. earningsSAN
Santander also lends to households and businesses and takes deposits in Spain and Mexico, so its report will show the customer demand and competitive pressure BBVA shares in those markets.
Read Santander’s loan and deposit trends in Spain and Mexico alongside its net interest income. Steady loans and deposits with supported interest income would point to continuing customer demand and room for banking business; weaker balances or pressured interest income would point to softer demand or tougher pricing. Santander’s results describe the shared markets, but cannot by themselves show whether BBVA gained or lost customers.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fed rate decisions influence borrowing costs and loan and deposit demand, shaping how BBVA earns interest on loans and pays interest on deposits.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates may lift what BBVA earns on loans as they reprice, but can also make borrowing costlier, curb loan demand and raise defaults and funding costs, squeezing its interest margin.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates may ease borrowing costs and support loan demand, but can also reduce what BBVA earns as loans reprice; the effect on its interest margin depends on how quickly loan and deposit rates adjust.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. earningsThis company
BBVA earns most of its income from loan interest, and this report will show whether that income still covers deposit costs and credit losses.
Read net interest income alongside impairment losses on financial assets. Rising income with contained losses would show that loan earnings are still covering funding costs and borrower defaults; weakening income with rising losses would show that repricing, deposit costs or repayment stress is squeezing the core business. BBVA’s Spain and Mexico results show where those changes are concentrated.