Stock daily read

What happened with API today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

API in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Agora helps developers add video calls, voice calls and other live interactions to their applications through software interfaces. Its Agora division serves the United States and other markets outside China, while Shengwang serves China. The company routes communications over a virtual network built on the public internet, monitoring transmission conditions and adjusting paths.

Customers receive a free usage allowance, then pay for usage beyond it. Almost all revenue comes from real-time engagement services rather than on-premise solutions. Customers generally receive monthly bills for the services they have used. Voice accounts for most minutes, but video brings in most revenue because it carries a higher price, reflecting greater bandwidth costs and technical complexity.

Revenue depends on people continuing to use customers’ applications: most customers can reduce or stop usage without penalty. A limited group of large customers contributes a meaningful share of revenue. Service delivery also depends on third-party bandwidth and data-center facilities. In China, the business requires telecommunications licensing; Shanghai Shengwang holds a nationwide domestic multiparty communication license. Data-protection and cross-border data-transfer rules also constrain where and how services can be deployed.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in API’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

API says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Agora’s results hinge on developers’ paid voice and especially video usage in social entertainment, live shopping, education and connected devices—not broad software spending alone.

  • Kaltura competes with Agora for enterprise and education customers that pay to embed live and real-time video in their applications through APIs, although Kaltura also sells broader content-management and cloud-TV software. Watch Kaltura’s enterprise and education video business rather than its cloud-TV business for the clearest overlap with Agora.

Agenda

in 21 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Kaltura, Inc. earningsKLTR

    Kaltura’s report on its enterprise and education video business will show how demand is changing for the embedded live-video services it shares with Agora.

in 30 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Agora, Inc. earningsThis company

    Agora charges mainly for customer usage, and its report will show whether paid usage and customer revenue retention are improving in both its international and China businesses.