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What happened with AMSS today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

AMSS in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Wine accounts for most of AMASS Brands’ sales, with brands including Summer Water rosé, Pizzolato MUSE and Good Twin alcohol-free wine. It also sells spirits such as Calirosa tequila and AMASS spirits, alongside non-alcoholic alternatives. Licensed distributors buy its beverages and supply retailers, bars and restaurants; consumers also buy directly through its e-commerce platforms. Substantially all revenue comes from the United States.

AMASS relies on outside producers and bottlers rather than operating its own manufacturing facilities, and sources all grapes and bulk wine from third parties. Sales depend on distributors getting products into stores and venues, within alcohol laws that govern licensing, distribution and relationships between suppliers, wholesalers and retailers. Continued use of the AMASS brand also depends on a license from Resonant, which owns the trademark.

The wine business has additional exposure to Full Glass Wine Co. Below-cost wine sales and fixed-price purchase commitments have hurt gross profit and cash flow. Full Glass is in default under its wine purchase agreement, and AMASS is negotiating a settlement. Separately, limited capital and recurring operating losses have raised substantial doubt about AMASS’s ability to continue operating; it needs sufficient operating cash flow or additional funding to meet its obligations.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in AMSS’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

AMSS says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

AMASS Brands Inc.’s results hinge mainly on U.S. wine demand and resolving loss-making contracts and payment defaults involving Full Glass Wine Co., an important customer missing from this list.

  • Willamette Valley Vineyards competes with AMASS for wine purchases and retail shelf space, as both sell branded wines through U.S. distributors. Watch its sales to distributors and wine brokers for a read on the channel AMASS relies on for its largest revenue source, wine.

  • Constellation Brands competes with AMASS to get its premium wines and spirits carried by U.S. distributors and bought by retailers, restaurants and consumers. Its wine and spirits sales are the relevant line to watch for AMASS, rather than the beer business that dominates Constellation’s results.

  • Diageo competes with AMASS for spirits buyers and distributor attention through Don Julio tequila, Tanqueray gin and its vodka brands. News on those products is more relevant to AMASS’s tequila, gin and vodka offerings than Diageo’s broader spirits and beer portfolio.

  • Brown-Forman’s tequila, gin and other premium spirits compete with AMASS’s smaller spirits portfolio for U.S. buyers and space in stores, bars and restaurants. Watch its U.S. tequila and gin business rather than treating news about its flagship Jack Daniel’s whiskey as a direct read on AMASS.

Agenda

in 29 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    AMASS Brands Inc. earningsThis company

    AMASS's report will show whether its wine-led business is bringing in more sales and leaving more after product costs to help cover its continuing losses.

in 79 daysWed, Jan 6

  1. Time to be announced

    Constellation Brands, Inc. earningsSTZ

    Constellation Brands' report will show whether its wine and spirits business is winning sales through the same U.S. distributors, retailers and restaurants that AMASS competes for.