What happened with AIRO today?
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AIRO Group Holdings develops and manufactures Sky-Watch drones for reconnaissance, surveillance and other defense missions, as well as commercial uses such as inspection and mapping. NATO countries including the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany buy its drones with government funds; most are then donated to Ukraine, while some procurement serves the countries’ own needs. Two drone customers account for most of the company’s revenue.
Its smaller businesses sell aircraft electronics and provide training services. Aspen Avionics sells flight displays and navigation sensors through dealers to aircraft owner-operators and supplies aircraft manufacturers, including Robinson Helicopters and Joby Aviation. CDI earns fees for military flight training and consulting for the U.S. military and allied countries, competing for individual assignments under government contracts.
The business depends heavily on defense procurement and continued orders from its concentrated drone customer base. Product customers generally buy through purchase orders rather than long-term commitments, and government training work depends on funding and renewals. International defense sales require export licenses and compliance with sanctions and technology-transfer restrictions.
Its Jaunt business is developing electric and hybrid-electric aircraft that take off and land vertically, initially for cargo and government missions. It has not delivered aircraft to customers or generated revenue. Commercialization still requires development and certification; passenger applications are a longer-term plan.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
AIRO’s results hinge chiefly on concentrated NATO-funded drone purchases for Ukraine; privately held Shield AI is another drone rival to watch, named in AIRO’s filing but absent from this list.
AeroVironment and AIRO compete to sell military reconnaissance drones to governments and allied defense customers. Watch AeroVironment’s allied-government drone sales for a read on the procurement demand that also matters to AIRO’s Sky-Watch business.
Red Cat Holdings, Inc. competes with AIRO for military and allied-government purchases of small tactical reconnaissance drones. Its Teal drone sales and progress with foreign military customers are the parts to watch, rather than its developing unmanned boats.
AEVEX Corp. challenges AIRO’s drone offering by selling military customers unmanned systems that gather intelligence and conduct surveillance and reconnaissance, including autonomous operation without reliable GPS. Watch its CompassX navigation and autonomy capabilities against AIRO’s RQ-35 Heidrun, whose claimed strength is operating in GPS-denied conditions.
Elbit Systems competes directly with AIRO for small military drones and also sells military aviation training and simulation capabilities, overlapping AIRO’s paid training services. Its Aerospace business’s unmanned-aircraft and training activity is more relevant to AIRO than its broader defense sales.
AgEagle Aerial Systems, Inc., rebranded as EagleNXT, competes with AIRO to sell professional drones to military customers and commercial surveying and mapping users. Watch its eBee drone revenue separately from sensor sales, which primarily serve agriculture and land-management users.
Teledyne Technologies competes with AIRO in two businesses: small drones for defense customers and Connected Panel avionics for aircraft buyers and operators. Watch its aircraft information-management products and small-drone activity, rather than treating its broad imaging and instrumentation sales as a direct gauge of AIRO.
Unusual Machines, Inc. shares AIRO’s exposure to expanding military small-drone fleets, but sells components to business customers while AIRO sells finished reconnaissance drones. Its enterprise component sales, which became its primary revenue driver in 2025, are the relevant signal—not its consumer drone sales.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions and AIRO both depend on U.S. and allied military spending on unmanned aircraft and training: Kratos sells aircraft and training systems, while AIRO sells reconnaissance drones and training services. Watch Kratos’s Unmanned Systems and training businesses for demand in those shared customer groups.
Garmin is AIRO’s main rival for flight displays and integrated avionics that aircraft owners buy through dealers to upgrade existing aircraft. Watch Garmin’s retrofit avionics offering against AIRO’s Aspen products, which compete on ease of use, low installation cost and upgradeability.
Beta Technologies, Inc. and AIRO’s Jaunt are pursuing electric aircraft for cargo, logistics and government missions before focusing on passenger transport, putting them in competition for military and commercial buyers. Watch BETA’s cargo-aircraft commercialization as AIRO works toward certification of its initial cargo platform.
Joby Aviation pays AIRO for avionics but also develops electric aircraft that compete with AIRO’s longer-term passenger-aircraft plans; Joby intends to earn revenue from passenger flights and aircraft sales. Watch its aircraft production and commercialization progress for the customer opportunity in AIRO’s avionics business, separately from the future passenger rivalry.
Garmin Ltd earningsGRMN
Garmin’s report will show whether aircraft owners are still buying retrofit avionics, the market where its offering competes with AIRO’s Aspen products.
Look for Garmin’s retrofit-avionics sales or commentary, rather than treating its company-wide results as a measure of avionics demand. Strength would show that aircraft owners are still buying upgrades, but not that AIRO is winning those orders. Weakness would point to a softer market for Aspen products, which AIRO sells through dealers. The distinction is between demand for the market and AIRO’s ability to capture it.
Joby Aviation, Inc. earningsJOBY
Joby Aviation pays AIRO for avionics, so its report will show whether progress on its electric aircraft supports or delays a potential source of demand for AIRO.
Read Joby’s aircraft production and commercialization progress as a signal about a potential customer, not as proof of avionics orders already secured by AIRO. Faster progress would make future demand from Joby more plausible; delays would push that opportunity out. Joby is also developing passenger electric aircraft that could compete with AIRO’s longer-term plans, a separate issue from its current role as an avionics customer. The question is whether Joby’s progress supports AIRO’s potential avionics demand and how far that opportunity remains from sales.
AEVEX Corp. earningsAVEX
AEVEX Corp. sells military unmanned systems for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, so its report will show how actively it is pursuing work that also matters to AIRO’s RQ-35 Heidrun.
Look for sales, orders or commentary on AEVEX’s unmanned-systems business, especially its navigation and autonomous operation without reliable GPS. Strong activity would show that AIRO’s RQ-35 Heidrun faces a rival pursuing similar military missions; weak activity would offer less evidence of that pressure, but would not establish that AIRO won the work. The conclusion is whether product competition for these missions appears to be intensifying.
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company
AIRO’s drone business supplies most of its revenue, and this report will show whether customer orders are turning into sales without squeezing the segment’s profit margin.
Read Drone revenue alongside the segment’s profit margin. Rising revenue with a steadier margin would suggest orders are turning into sales without growth relying heavily on discounting or a less profitable product mix. Rising revenue with a further margin decline would mean AIRO is selling more but keeping less profit from each sale. If revenue weakens, concentrated customer orders may be slowing or shifting. The conclusion is whether AIRO can turn drone orders into growth that holds up on profitability.
AeroVironment, Inc. earningsAVAV
AeroVironment’s report will show whether allied governments are buying reconnaissance drones, a demand signal relevant to AIRO’s Sky-Watch business.
Look for AeroVironment’s drone sales or orders to allied governments, separate from its overall sales. Stronger procurement would support the view that government customers are buying reconnaissance drones, making the market relevant to AIRO’s Sky-Watch business more active. Weaker procurement would soften that demand signal, but would not prove that AIRO’s orders fell. The conclusion is whether allied purchasing supports demand for the market, not whether AIRO received the same orders.
