Stock daily read

What happened with ADAM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ADAM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Most of Adamas Trust’s revenue and income comes from its investment portfolio, rather than lending fees. It owns residential loans and securities backed by pools of home mortgages, so borrowers’ payments feed its interest income. The portfolio leans heavily toward agency residential mortgage-backed securities, whose payments are guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. It uses borrowed money to fund investments, making earnings depend on asset yields exceeding financing costs and on continued access to funding.

Its wholly owned subsidiary Constructive lends to real estate investors who need financing for rental homes or properties being bought and renovated. Constructive earns origination fees and gains from selling loans, selling most to outside investors while Adamas Trust retains some for investment. This business depends on investor demand for financing and buyers’ demand for the loans; sale agreements can require Constructive to repurchase loans that fail its contractual assurances.

Maintaining real estate investment trust tax status and its exclusion from investment-company registration restricts the assets Adamas Trust can hold and requires income distributions. Constructive must also comply with mortgage-originator licensing and lending rules.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ADAM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ADAM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Annaly Capital Management and Adamas Trust both borrow to buy residential mortgage loans and government-backed mortgage securities, earning the gap between investment income and financing costs. Annaly’s Agency and residential-credit investment results help show how those two parts of Adamas’s portfolio are faring.

  • AGNC Investment and Adamas Trust both earn mortgage interest by borrowing against government-backed residential mortgage securities through repurchase agreements. Watch AGNC’s funding costs: short-term rates and funding-market liquidity affect the same kind of borrowing Adamas uses.

  • MFA Financial’s Lima One competes with Adamas Trust’s Constructive to lend to residential real estate investors; both parents also earn interest from business-purpose loans and government-backed mortgage securities. Lima One’s investor-loan originations offer a view of demand in Constructive’s customer market.

  • Chimera Investment and Adamas Trust both borrow to earn interest from residential loans, investor business-purpose loans and government-backed and other mortgage securities, alongside loan-origination businesses. Chimera’s investment interest income after borrowing costs is the clearest comparison for Adamas’s portfolio earnings.

  • Dynex Capital and Adamas Trust both have substantial investments in fixed-rate, government-backed residential mortgage securities, so mortgage prices and borrower payments matter to both. Dynex’s cash flows from securities backed by fixed-rate single-family loans provide a comparison for Adamas’s fixed-rate holdings.

  • Invesco Mortgage Capital and Adamas Trust both collect interest from government-backed residential mortgage securities, with earnings and valuations exposed to mortgage spreads and financing costs. Watch whether Invesco’s portfolio returns stay above its overall funding cost—the same earnings gap matters to Adamas.

  • ARMOUR Residential REIT and Adamas Trust both use borrowing to earn interest from government-backed mortgage securities, with substantial exposure to fixed-rate mortgages. ARMOUR’s repurchase financing and fixed-rate securities performance offer a comparison for the funding and asset risks in Adamas’s portfolio.

  • Orchid Island Capital and Adamas Trust both borrow to earn interest from government-backed residential mortgage securities, making mortgage spreads and interest-rate management important to both. Orchid’s mortgage interest income after borrowing costs is useful to watch, but its securities that pay only interest or principal make its portfolio a different mix.

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  • Redwood Trust competes in residential investor lending with Adamas Trust’s Constructive, and both companies retain housing-credit investments that earn interest. Redwood’s income from making or buying loans and then selling them offers a comparison for Constructive’s origination-and-sale revenue.

  • Rithm Capital’s residential transitional lending overlaps the loans Adamas Trust’s Constructive makes to real estate investors, while both companies also invest in residential mortgages. Watch Rithm’s transitional-lending business for conditions facing Constructive’s investor customers, rather than treating Rithm’s broader mortgage-sales and servicing revenue as a direct comparison.

  • TPG Mortgage Investment Trust and Adamas Trust both earn mortgage investment interest and own businesses that make residential loans, though TPG focuses on non-agency loans. Arc Home’s income from making and selling mortgages offers a comparison for Constructive’s loan-origination and sale business, not an identical customer market.

  • PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust and Adamas Trust share exposure to government-backed mortgage securities and residential mortgage credit, so mortgage spreads, funding costs and borrower performance affect both. PennyMac also earns from collecting and administering mortgage payments and buying loans from lenders to pool and resell, making those businesses less direct comparisons for Adamas.

  • Ellington Financial and Adamas Trust both invest in mortgage loans and securities, making residential loan performance and mortgage-credit spreads useful points of comparison. Ellington’s Longbridge makes, buys, sells and services reverse mortgages, while its consumer and corporate credit investments add earnings drivers outside that shared mortgage exposure.

Agenda

tomorrowTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced

    Annaly Capital Management. Inc. earningsNLY

    Annaly Capital Management's report will show how much income remains after funding costs on the Agency and residential-credit investments it shares with Adamas Trust.

in 7 daysMon, Oct 26

  1. Time to be announced

    AGNC Investment Corp. Depositary Shares Each Representing a 1/1,000th Interest in a Share of 7.75% Series G Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock earningsAGNCL

    AGNC Investment's report will show the cost and conditions of using repurchase agreements to fund government-backed mortgage securities, a financing path Adamas Trust also uses for its Agency investments.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Adamas Trust, the Fed’s decision on its benchmark interest rate matters because it can change what the company pays on short-term financing for its mortgage investments faster than it changes the income from many fixed-rate assets.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Adamas Trust, Inc. earningsThis company

    Adamas Trust's report will show whether interest from its mortgage investments still exceeds the cost of funding them, and whether Constructive earns more from selling loans than it spends originating them.

  2. Time to be announced

    MFA Financial, Inc earningsMFA

    MFA Financial's report will show how Lima One is lending to residential real-estate investors, offering a read on the customer market and direct competition facing Constructive.