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What happened with ACB today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ACB in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Aurora Cannabis grows cannabis and processes it into products for medical patients. Medical cannabis provides most of its revenue, with international sales contributing more than Canadian medical sales. Dried flower is its largest product category, followed by extracts. Its Canadian recreational cannabis business now has very limited activity and is being wound down.

In Canada, registered patients buy directly through Aurora’s online shop or client care centre, rather than through provincial wholesalers or private retailers. Abroad, Aurora supplies medical cannabis to wholesale buyers and pharmacies; in Germany, it sells both directly to pharmacies and through wholesalers. Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland and Australia are its principal medical markets.

The business depends on permission to grow, distribute and export cannabis. Canadian licences are tied to individual facilities, while overseas sales require local approvals and compliance with each market’s rules. Certifications confirming pharmaceutical manufacturing standards at certain Canadian and German facilities allow Aurora to supply tightly regulated markets. Canadian medical earnings also depend on federal reimbursement terms, which have changed to provide less reimbursement.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ACB’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ACB says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Canopy Growth Corporation competes with Aurora for medical cannabis patients and distribution outlets in Canada, Germany, Poland and Australia. Watch its German medical sales, where Aurora supplies pharmacies in a market offering higher dried-flower prices than Canada.

  • Tilray Brands, Inc. competes with Aurora to supply medical cannabis in Canada and Europe, including to German pharmacies. Its medical cannabis business is the relevant comparison, rather than its substantial non-cannabis businesses.

  • IM Cannabis Corp. and Aurora compete to supply German pharmacies, so German patient demand and competition from imports matter to both. Watch IM Cannabis's German sales through Adjupharm, which imports cannabis from supply partners and delivers it to licensed pharmacies.

  • Aurora is due to buy premium cannabis flower from Sundial Growers Inc. (SNDL) under a three-year agreement worth an estimated CAD 27 million. SNDL also sells cannabis into medical and export markets, so watch its flower deliveries to Aurora as well as its sales into markets where the two compete.

  • Cronos Group Inc. Common Share competes with Aurora for Canadian medical cannabis patients, but sells through third-party distributors while Aurora sells directly to registered patients. Its Canadian medical sales are the closer comparison for Aurora than its substantial adult-use business.

  • Village Farms International, Inc. and Aurora both produce cannabis in Canada and compete to supply international medical cannabis markets. Its Canadian cannabis business, including Pure Sunfarms and Rose LifeScience, is the relevant operation to watch rather than its fresh-produce or renewable-gas businesses.

  • Organigram Global Inc. competes with Aurora in supplying Canadian medical cannabis patients and exporting flower to international medical markets. Its medical flower exports are the closer comparison for Aurora, despite Organigram's greater emphasis on adult-use cannabis.

  • Intercure Ltd. explicitly names Aurora as a competitor in selling pharmaceutical-grade medical cannabis, with some distribution exposure to Europe. Watch its German pharmaceutical distribution agreement for developments in access to that market; some of its other European collaborations have been terminated.

Agenda

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Sundial Growers Inc. earningsSNDL

    SNDL's report can offer clues about the flower supply Aurora is due to buy and show how SNDL is selling in medical and export markets they share.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Aurora Cannabis Inc. earningsThis company

    Aurora's report will show whether growth in international medical cannabis is offsetting lower reimbursement for its Canadian direct-to-patient business.

in 17 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    Cronos Group Inc. earningsCRON

    Cronos Group's report will show how its third-party distribution channel is selling Canadian medical cannabis, giving Aurora a comparison for its direct-to-patient business.

in 18 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced

    Canopy Growth Corporation earningsCGC

    Canopy Growth's report will show how its German medical cannabis sales are faring in a market where Aurora also supplies pharmacies and competes for patient demand.