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What happened with YSWY today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
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What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

YSWY in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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Company

Company overview

Yesway serves customers in rural and suburban communities across the U.S. Southwest and Midwest, with its largest store concentration in Texas. Customers pay for gasoline, diesel, groceries and prepared food at its company-operated stores. Fuel brings shoppers, including commercial drivers, to its locations, while its rewards and fleet programs encourage in-store purchases. Allsup’s deep-fried burritos also attract customers specifically for the food.

Fuel supplies most revenue, but in-store merchandise contributes more gross profit—the money left after buying the products sold—than fuel does. Allsup’s prepared food earns higher margins than most other in-store merchandise. Fuel earnings depend on gallons sold and the gap between wholesale costs and pump prices, which changes with local competition and the timing of retail price adjustments.

Yesway relies on a small group of suppliers: its main fuel partners include Valero, Alon and HF Sinclair, while AMCON and Affiliated Foods primarily supply in-store merchandise. Some Allsup’s food items also have limited suppliers. Fuel storage and sales must meet environmental and safety requirements, and age-restricted products require permits and licenses. Yesway has agreed to sell its Iowa and Kansas stores, primarily because new Iowa regulations would require capital spending it considers uneconomic; the sale has not been assured.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in YSWY’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

YSWY says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Yesway’s results hinge on retail fuel margins and convenience-store merchandise sales: watch Affiliated Foods, which supplies all Allsup’s stores, and Alon, its largest branded fuel distributor.

  • Yesway relies on AMCON Distributing Co. as a primary supplier of goods it sells to convenience-store shoppers, so AMCON’s deliveries and prices matter to product availability and merchandise costs. Watch for disruptions in AMCON’s wholesale business supplying retailers, which could leave Yesway short of merchandise or paying more for it.

  • Yesway depends on Valero Energy for fuel it sells to motorists, making the fuel producer’s refinery and delivery reliability important to keeping stores supplied. Watch Valero’s refinery and distribution disruptions: replacing a major supplier’s fuel could interrupt Yesway’s operations or reduce its fuel margins.

  • HF Sinclair Corporation supplies gasoline and diesel that Yesway sells to motorists, with nearby refineries and fuel terminals supporting availability and purchasing economics. Its refinery and terminal operating news is worth watching for signs of how reliably Yesway can obtain those fuels, especially when supply is scarce.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. 10:30 AMET

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)

    Weekly US crude oil and gasoline stocks track how much oil and fuel is held in storage, which can shift wholesale fuel costs for Yesway’s fuel sales—about two-thirds of its revenue—and affect the margin between what it pays suppliers and charges drivers.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Valero Energy Corporation earningsVLO

    Valero's report shows whether refinery and delivery disruptions are tightening the fuel supply Yesway relies on for its stores.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Yesway’s variable-rate loans mean the Fed’s policy rate can change what Yesway pays to borrow, affecting store cash available after interest expense.

in 17 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced

    AMCON Distributing Co. earningsDIT

    AMCON's wholesale report offers a read on merchandise supply and costs for convenience-store retailers, which matter to Yesway's in-store business.

in 23 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Yesway, Inc. earningsThis company

    Yesway uses fuel to bring drivers into its stores and earns gross profit from inside merchandise, so this report shows whether both parts of its business are holding up.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales measure consumer spending at stores, including purchases relevant to Yesway’s fuel, foodservice and other merchandise sales at the point of sale, so stronger or weaker spending can change revenue and store margins.