Stock daily read

What happened with VLRS today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

VLRS in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Controladora Vuela serves travelers under the Volaris brand across Mexico, the United States, Central America and South America. Its largest customer group travels to visit friends and relatives; it also serves vacationers and cost-conscious business travelers. Mexican domestic flights generate most revenue, while the United States is its largest international market.

Volaris attracts passengers with low base fares, then charges for choices such as checked baggage, preferred seats and onboard food. Passenger payments provide nearly all revenue, and additional passenger services bring in more than base fares. This extra spending helps support low ticket prices and attract more travelers. Commissions on third-party services and cargo carried in spare capacity on passenger flights contribute a smaller share. Most tickets are sold through its website and app.

The model depends on keeping aircraft flying frequently and maintaining low operating costs. Volaris uses an all-Airbus A320/A321 fleet, but prolonged Pratt & Whitney engine inspections have kept some aircraft out of service. Fuel is its largest operating expense. Routes also require government concessions, permits and airport slots; flight limits at Mexico City International Airport have already forced it to reduce capacity there.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in VLRS’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

VLRS says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Volaris’s results also hinge on competition with Aeroenlaces Nacionales (Viva), Mexico’s other major ultra-low-cost airline, and Airbus delivering its planned fleet.

  • Aeroméxico competes with Volaris for paying passengers on domestic Mexican and international routes, selling a fuller-service flight rather than Volaris’s low base fare with paid extras. Its domestic network feeds long-haul flights, making its Mexican passenger business worth watching alongside Volaris’s domestic revenue.

  • Frontier competes with Volaris for price-sensitive U.S.–Mexico travelers using the same low-base-fare, paid-extras model, but also sells flights operated by its partner through their codeshare. Frontier’s revenue from baggage, seat selection and other extras offers a comparison for how Volaris earns beyond the ticket price.

  • ASUR and Volaris both earn from passenger traffic in Mexico: ASUR runs airports and earns airport-service and commercial revenue, while Volaris collects fares and fees for extras from travelers it carries. Watch ASUR’s Mexican airport-service and commercial revenue separately from construction revenue for a clearer view of travel demand.

  • American Airlines competes with Volaris for passengers buying U.S.–Mexico flights, offering a connecting network against Volaris’s low-fare service.

  • United competes with Volaris for U.S.–Mexico ticket sales, giving passengers connections through its hubs as an alternative to Volaris’s low-fare flights.

  • Southwest competes with Volaris for fare-conscious passengers buying flights between the United States and Mexican leisure destinations.

  • Alaska Air Group competes with Volaris for ticket sales between the western United States and Mexico, including travelers taking holidays or visiting friends and relatives.

  • Delta competes with Volaris for paying U.S.–Mexico passengers, using its hub network against Volaris’s low-fare international flights.

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  • JetBlue competes with Volaris for U.S.–Mexico ticket buyers, pairing competitive fares with more included amenities rather than relying on Volaris’s low-fare offer.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. 10:30 AMET

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)

    For Volaris, US reports on crude oil and fuel stocks signal whether supply is tightening or loosening, which can move the fuel prices behind its largest operating cost and change what it pays to fly.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S.A. de C.V. earningsASR

    ASUR's Mexican airport-service and commercial revenue gives a view of passenger activity and spending in a market Volaris serves.

in 6 daysMon, Oct 26

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    CONTROLADORA VUELA COMPANIA DE AVIACION, S.A.B. DE C.V. earningsThis company

    Volaris sells low base fares and earns more when passengers buy extras such as bags and seat selection, so this report shows whether those sales can offset fare pressure and operating costs.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. earningsULCC

    Frontier and Volaris both use low base fares and sell paid extras, so Frontier's report shows how much it earns from items such as baggage and seat selection.