VELO in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Velo3D helps equipment makers and contract manufacturers produce complex, high-value metal parts. Customers buy its Sapphire-family printers to make parts in their own facilities, with software, installation and initial support included in the sale. Printer sales provide most of its revenue, and customers can pay to renew support after the initial contract ends.
Customers that do not want to buy equipment can pay Velo3D to manufacture parts through Rapid Production Solutions (RPS). Velo3D uses systems it operates and its engineering team to help customers develop parts, qualify them for use and move into production. This can lead to printer purchases or remain an ongoing manufacturing service.
Defense-related programs account for most revenue, with aerospace and aviation also important. Sales depend on a small group of customers and on their equipment budgets, qualification work and production schedules. Export-control and sanctions rules restrict certain shipments, requiring a license or an exemption. Velo3D also needs additional financing to keep operating and has disclosed substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Velo3D’s results hinge on concentrated defense and aerospace printer and parts orders; watch SpaceX too, whose licensing agreement generated $5 million in revenue in 2024.
Lockheed Martin and Velo3D share exposure to defense and aerospace spending: Lockheed builds systems chiefly for U.S. government agencies and allies, while Velo3D sells metal-manufacturing equipment and parts to manufacturers and reports an engagement with Lockheed, not a guaranteed continuing contract. Watch Lockheed’s defense programs, as defense-related programs supplied 56% of Velo3D’s revenue in 2025.
Honeywell’s aerospace and industrial businesses expose it to the manufacturing spending that matters to Velo3D, which sells metal-manufacturing systems and parts to equipment makers and contract manufacturers and reports a current or past engagement with Honeywell. Watch Honeywell’s aerospace and industrial automation sales rather than its total sales for a closer read on those markets.
Honeywell International, Inc. earningsHON
Honeywell’s aerospace and industrial automation results will show whether manufacturers’ spending is supporting demand for Velo3D’s systems and parts.
Focus on Honeywell’s aerospace and industrial automation sales, not its total sales. Strength in both would signal better support for manufacturing activity and equipment spending, a more favorable demand backdrop for Velo3D’s printer and parts orders. Weakness would point to a tougher order environment for Velo3D’s manufacturing customers. Honeywell’s results are a market signal, not proof that it or any other customer ordered from Velo3D.
Lockheed Martin Corp. earningsLMT
Lockheed Martin’s defense-program results will show whether activity in a market that is important to Velo3D is supporting demand for its systems and parts.
Read Lockheed Martin’s defense-program sales or activity against Velo3D’s own defense exposure: defense-related programs supplied about 56% of Velo3D’s 2025 revenue. Stronger Lockheed program activity would point to a firmer defense-market backdrop for Velo3D’s related systems and parts demand; weaker activity would put more pressure on this important source of demand. The companies do different work, and Lockheed’s results do not establish that it placed orders with Velo3D.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Fed’s policy rate—the rate that guides borrowing costs across the economy—matters to Velo3D because it needs financing for operations and obligations, so market rates can affect what it pays to borrow and whether funding is available.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates can make new financing more expensive or harder for Velo3D to obtain, increasing pressure on cash available for operations and debt payments.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates can make new financing cheaper or easier for Velo3D to obtain, potentially easing the cash burden of operations and debt payments.
Velo3D, Inc. earningsThis company
Velo3D’s report will show whether printer and parts orders turn into shipments and cash, easing the business’s reliance on financing.
Read printer and parts revenue alongside gross margin and operating cash flow. Rising revenue with an improving margin and less cash used would show that order conversion is improving the economics and easing funding pressure. If revenue rises while the margin remains negative and operations keep using cash, growth is still not producing the funds needed to sustain the business. The test is whether shipments bring both better margins and cash.