Stock daily read

What happened with USPH today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

USPH in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

U.S. Physical Therapy helps patients recover from surgery, orthopedic conditions, sports injuries and workplace injuries. It usually operates clinics through partnerships in which the company owns a majority stake and a local therapist owns the remaining interest and runs the clinic. It also provides speech and occupational therapy and some care at patients’ homes. Patient treatment supplies most of its revenue. Managed care plans and commercial insurers are the largest payor group, while the government health programs Medicare and Medicaid provide a substantial share. Clinics generally bill for individual treatment procedures.

A smaller business sends specialists to employers’ workplaces to prevent injuries and provide rehabilitation. Employers contract for and directly pay for most of these services. The company also earns fees for managing and staffing therapy services for hospitals and other providers it does not own.

The clinic business depends on local physicians referring patients, enough qualified therapists to treat them, and insurers’ and government programs’ reimbursement rates and coverage rules. State laws restricting corporate provision of therapy and fee-sharing also constrain how the company structures its relationships with clinicians and providers.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in USPH’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

USPH says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

U.S. Physical Therapy’s results depend more on rehabilitation visits, physician referrals, therapist costs and commercial-insurance and Medicare reimbursement than on the broader healthcare businesses represented here.

  • Omada Health competes with U.S. Physical Therapy’s rehabilitation and employer-paid injury services by offering online muscle and joint care from licensed physical therapists to employers and health plans. Its Omada for MSK program is the business to watch for competition over those customers, rather than its diabetes and weight-management programs.

  • The Pennant Group overlaps with U.S. Physical Therapy’s home-care therapy business by providing physical, occupational and speech therapy in patients’ homes, with payments across its businesses coming from government programs, private-pay patients and residents, and managed care payors. Its home-health therapy business offers the closer comparison; hospice and senior living make its overall results less directly comparable.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s rate decision signals whether borrowing costs across the economy are rising or falling, which can change what U.S. Physical Therapy pays on its $161.8 million in borrowings as its debt reprices.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    US Physical Therapy Inc earningsThis company

    U.S. Physical Therapy’s therapy and workplace injury-prevention businesses pay to staff and deliver their services, and this report will show whether revenue growth is lifting gross profit in both segments.

  2. Time to be announced

    The Pennant Group, Inc. earningsPNTG

    The Pennant Group’s home-health therapy business overlaps with U.S. Physical Therapy’s home-care services, so its report offers a read on demand and revenue in that part of the therapy market.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    Omada Health, Inc. earningsOMDA

    Omada Health’s online musculoskeletal (MSK) care targets employers and health plans, and its report can show whether demand for that service is intensifying competition for U.S. Physical Therapy’s rehabilitation and employer injury-service customers.