Stock daily read

What happened with UPBD today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

UPBD in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Acima and Rent-A-Center account for most of Upbound Group’s business, and nearly all revenue comes from the United States. Acima, its largest business, serves consumers who do not qualify for traditional financing: it buys goods from third-party retailers and leases them to customers. Rent-A-Center buys goods mainly at wholesale prices and leases them through its own stores and website.

Customers pay to keep using the goods and can acquire ownership by completing the required renewals or paying an early purchase price—the more common route. They can also return goods and end the lease without a termination penalty. Paying through all renewals generally costs more than buying outright. Rental payments and fees supply most revenue; the economics depend on customer payments, Acima’s retailer relationships and successfully re-leasing returned goods. Some states cap total lease charges or merchandise cash prices.

A smaller business, Brigit, provides budgeting tools and advances against earned wages through mobile and web applications. It earns mainly from paid subscriptions, with optional fees for faster advance delivery. Some services depend on bank partners, including Coastal Community Bank. Brigit remains subject to FTC settlement requirements governing marketing, subscription authorization and cancellation practices.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in UPBD’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

UPBD says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Upbound’s results depend on nonprime consumers’ ability to pay and lease volumes through retailers; important merchandise suppliers Ashley Furniture Industries, LG Electronics and Whirlpool are absent from this list.

  • PROG Holdings’ Progressive Leasing competes with Upbound’s Acima for retail partners and consumers who pay to lease purchases with a path to ownership rather than use traditional financing. Progressive Leasing’s retail lease activity and customers’ ability to keep paying are signals to watch for Acima, which serves a similar financing-constrained customer group.

  • Katapult Holdings competes with Upbound’s Acima for underserved U.S. consumers, letting them obtain durable goods through retailers and pay under leases with a path to ownership. Its recurring consumer lease payments are a useful signal of the payment capacity that also matters to Acima.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    PROG Holdings, Inc. earningsPRG

    PROG Holdings' report will show whether retail partners and consumers still support lease-to-own purchases, in the same market where Acima competes for retailers and customers.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s rate decision signals borrowing costs across the economy, which can change interest expense on Upbound’s variable-rate debt and the earnings left after paying it.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Upbound Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    Upbound Group's report will show whether Acima's lease growth can offset Rent-A-Center's decline and support profit.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track how much consumers spend at stores, which can shape demand for goods leased through Acima’s retailer partners and the lease revenue Upbound earns when customers take up those agreements.