Stock daily read

What happened with TW today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TW in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Tradeweb Markets helps investors and dealers find prices and execute trades electronically across interest-rate products, credit, equities and money markets. Institutional clients provide most of its revenue, and interest-rate products account for the largest share. Clients pay transaction fees and commissions, its main revenue source, as well as subscriptions for marketplace access, pricing information and trade processing and reporting.

Tradeweb also earns fees from corporate treasury teams’ money-market-fund investments through the ICD Portal, based on the balances invested rather than individual trades. It uses information collected through its marketplaces to provide pricing and analytics, and earns fees from LSEG for market data that LSEG distributes. LSEG distributes a significant portion of Tradeweb’s market data.

The trading business depends on dealers posting prices and responding to clients’ requests to trade. Certain dealers supply a significant share of trading volume, while a limited number of clients initiating trades account for a significant share of volume and transaction fees. These relationships are not exclusive, and most clients initiating trades have no long-term contracts, so activity can move elsewhere. Tradeweb must maintain authorization, registration or a valid exemption to operate in each jurisdiction; expanding some activities also requires regulatory approval.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TW’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TW says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Tradeweb’s results hinge on rates and credit trading volumes and its share of electronic trading, with Bloomberg a key rival missing from this list and LSEG a significant shareholder and market-data customer.

  • MarketAxess competes with Tradeweb for institutional investors’ and dealers’ electronic trades in corporate, municipal and government bonds, earning commissions when clients trade on its platforms. Watch its corporate and municipal bond activity for signs of competition facing Tradeweb’s credit-trading revenue.

  • CME Group and Tradeweb both depend on rates trading and hedging demand, while CME’s BrokerTec competes for clients’ cash-bond trades and borrowing against bonds, known as repo. CME earns revenue from trading and related services; its interest-rate derivatives activity is a useful indicator of demand behind Tradeweb’s rates revenue.

  • BGC Group competes with Tradeweb for institutional and dealer-to-dealer trades in government and corporate bonds and interest-rate and credit derivatives, charging clients for arranging and executing trades. Watch its expansion into services for Tradeweb’s customers and its reports of commission discounting for signs of competitive pressure.

  • Intercontinental Exchange competes with Tradeweb for institutional investors’ and dealers’ electronic fixed-income trades through BondPoint, TMC Bonds and Creditex. ICE also supplies technology and data to financial institutions, companies and governments, so its fixed-income trading business—not the whole group—is the relevant comparison for Tradeweb.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    CME Group Inc. earningsCME

    CME Group's report will show demand for interest-rate hedging and activity in BrokerTec cash-bond and repo trading, revealing market demand and competitive pressure around Tradeweb's rates business.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Tradeweb’s rates marketplaces earn trade-based fees when clients trade, so the Fed’s interest-rate decision matters through its effect on rate-market activity and volatility.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Tradeweb Markets Inc. earningsThis company

    Tradeweb's report will show whether clients are trading more across its rates, credit, equities and money-market platforms, and whether subscription and data fees are growing alongside those trades.

in 17 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced

    MarketAxess Holdings Inc. earningsMKTX

    MarketAxess's report will show electronic trading activity in corporate and municipal bonds, revealing both shared demand and competition for Tradeweb's credit-trading business.