Stock daily read

What happened with TOPP today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TOPP in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Waste companies, recycling centers and commodity traders pay Toppoint Holdings Inc. to move materials to ports for export. Waste-paper transportation brings in most of its revenue; it also carries scrap metal and logs. Customers can use its services for loading, trucking, moving containers through ports and unloading, rather than arranging each step separately.

Import-container delivery is its next-largest revenue source. Toppoint moves containers from Newark and Philadelphia ports to customers’ locations and works with importers to pair inbound deliveries with export loads using the same container. It relies on owner-operators and independent contractor drivers rather than company-owned trucks, adding outside carriers when capacity is insufficient. Keeping those operators available is central to fulfilling orders, and their work is subject to Department of Transportation safety and driving-hours requirements.

Customers include Waste Management, Georgia-Pacific and Cellmark Inc. Its ten largest customers supply more than half of revenue, generally without guaranteed minimum shipping volumes. The business therefore depends on those customers’ shipping activity, particularly export demand for waste paper, as well as inbound container traffic.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TOPP’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TOPP says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Toppoint’s results hinge on waste-paper export demand, import-container volumes and prices for short-haul port trucking against competitors such as Evans Delivery Company—not broad parcel-delivery trends.

  • Waste Management is one of Toppoint’s top customers, paying it to transport recyclables for export, while Waste Management collects waste and recyclables for businesses, households and local authorities. Its Recycling Processing and Sales business is the part to watch for clues about Toppoint’s recycling-export hauling demand.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. 10:30 AMET

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)

    The weekly US crude oil and gasoline stocks report tracks how much crude oil and fuel is held in storage; for Toppoint, inventory-driven fuel-price changes can affect the diesel costs its owner-operators pay and the transportation costs not recovered through surcharges.

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Waste Management, Inc. earningsWM

    Waste Management’s Recycling Processing and Sales business will show whether this major Toppoint customer is still moving recyclables toward export, supporting Toppoint’s export-hauling demand.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 9:15 AMET pre-market

    Industrial Production MoM (Oct)

    Industrial production tracks output from factories, mines and utilities; for Toppoint, stronger output can mean more paper, scrap-metal and log export loads to haul and more transportation revenue, while weaker output can mean fewer loads.