Stock daily read

What happened with TMDX today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TMDX in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

TransMedics Group helps transplant centers keep donated hearts, lungs and livers functioning outside the body before transplantation. Its portable OCS platform circulates warm blood and nutrient-enriched solutions through the organs, using a console and sterile disposable supplies. Each transplant using OCS requires a new organ-specific disposable set, so continued use generates repeat purchases rather than just equipment sales.

Product sales provide most revenue. Transplant centers also pay TransMedics to retrieve organs, manage their preservation on OCS and coordinate air and ground transport through its National OCS Program (NOP). Nearly all U.S. customers use this service, which includes company-owned and operated aircraft. The business is overwhelmingly U.S.-based, and liver transplantation accounts for most OCS transplant revenue. A limited number of customers supply a significant share of revenue.

Revenue depends on available donor organs, transplant-center capacity and the NOP's ability to provide qualified clinical staff and timely transport. Hospitals also need reimbursement or other funding to cover OCS costs; many national health systems outside the United States do not reimburse its use. Fresenius is the single-source supplier of solutions for OCS Heart and OCS Lung. The products have FDA approval for heart, lung and liver transplantation, but the company must maintain those approvals and cannot promote unapproved uses.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TMDX’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TMDX says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

TransMedics’ results hinge on U.S. liver and heart transplant volumes and adoption of its organ-perfusion and logistics service; rivals to watch that are absent from this list include Terumo’s OrganOx, XVIVO Perfusion and Getinge’s Paragonix.

Agenda

in 14 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    TransMedics Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    TransMedics’ report will show whether growth in OCS Liver and Heart disposable sets can keep driving the business without the cost of its U.S. NOP services getting out of hand.