TKO in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with TKO today?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
TKO Group Holdings stages UFC mixed martial arts events, WWE professional wrestling shows and PBR bull-riding competitions. UFC and WWE together account for most of its revenue. The company produces events and programming that broadcasters and streaming services pay to carry under long-term contracts; media rights, production and content are its largest revenue source. Those events also bring in money from fans buying tickets and premium experiences, hosts paying site fees, sponsors paying for exposure and manufacturers licensing its brands for merchandise.
TKO also serves other sports-rights owners through IMG, which sells media rights and sponsorships and produces and distributes content for commissions and fees. On Location sells premium event tickets and hospitality experiences and manages travel for sports and entertainment events.
A large part of the business depends on distribution partners, notably Paramount for UFC, Netflix for WWE's Raw and ESPN for WWE's U.S. premium live events. Maintaining those contracts and keeping fans interested in its events and performers are central to earning revenue. TKO must also obtain the required promoter and event licenses, medical clearances and permits; without them, it may be unable to stage events in a jurisdiction.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Netflix pays TKO to carry Raw globally and other WWE programming outside the United States, making its long-term agreements an important source of WWE media-rights growth. Netflix earns mainly monthly membership fees; watch its WWE distribution agreements, including the international deal's option to exit after the first five years.
Walt Disney's ESPN pays TKO for WWE premium live-event rights and earns from sports audiences through television and streaming. Its five-year agreement made ESPN the exclusive U.S. home for those events in September 2025, making that WWE programming deal the direct link to TKO's rights revenue.
Live Nation and TKO both rely on fans' discretionary spending and sponsors' budgets: Live Nation sells concert tickets and sponsorships, while TKO sells sports-event tickets, premium experiences and sponsorships. Watch Live Nation's concert-ticket sales and Sponsorship & Advertising revenue for a comparison with demand for TKO's live events.
Manchester United and TKO both turn global sports followings into payments from broadcasters, sponsors and fans through rights, merchandise and attendance. Manchester United's sponsorship revenue offers a comparison for TKO's partnership business: companies pay the club to associate their brands with its worldwide fan community.
Atlanta Braves Holdings and TKO both earn from broadcasters, sponsors and fans through sports rights, tickets, premium seating and branded merchandise. Watch the Braves' ticket and premium-seat demand as a comparison for TKO's live-event spending, while remembering that the Braves says its demand depends heavily on on-field success.
NetFlix Inc earningsNFLX
Netflix's report will show whether its membership business can support continued investment in WWE programming, an important buyer-side signal for TKO's WWE media-rights business.
Look at Netflix's membership business and broader media results. Stronger performance suggests it is better placed to monetize programming that includes WWE, supporting the buyer backdrop for TKO's rights; weaker performance would reduce that support. Netflix's overall results do not prove demand for WWE specifically or show that payments under the existing rights deal have changed.
MANCHESTER UNITED PLC earningsMANU
Manchester United's report will show whether brands are still paying to reach a global sports audience, a comparison for TKO's partnerships and marketing business.
Look at Manchester United's sponsorship revenue. Growth would suggest brands are still paying to reach sports audiences, supporting the market backdrop for TKO's partnerships; a decline would point to possible pressure on that shared source of spending. The club's audience and business differ from TKO's, so its results cannot settle TKO's own sponsorship performance.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For TKO, the Fed’s decision on short-term borrowing rates matters because higher rates can raise interest costs on its variable-rate term loans, leaving less cash for operations.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the Fed sets rates higher than expected, interest costs on TKO’s variable-rate term loans may rise, reducing earnings and cash available to run its businesses.
If it comes in below expectations
If the Fed sets rates lower than expected, interest costs on TKO’s variable-rate term loans may ease, supporting earnings and leaving more cash available for operations.
Live Nation Entertainment Inc. earningsLYV
Live Nation's concert-ticket and sponsorship results will show how fans and brands are spending on live entertainment, a demand comparison for TKO's event tickets and partnerships.
Read concert-ticket results alongside Sponsorship & Advertising revenue. Strength in both would show fans are buying tickets and brands are funding live entertainment, a supportive demand backdrop for TKO's event tickets, premium experiences and sponsorships; weakness would point to pressure on those shared revenue sources. Concert demand is not the same as sports-event demand, so TKO's own figures still have to confirm the signal.
Skydance Corporation earningsSKYD
Skydance's report will show whether Paramount Skydance, the buyer of UFC's U.S. rights, can monetize its media and streaming audiences, a buyer-side signal for TKO's UFC rights business.
Look at the performance of Skydance's media and streaming businesses. Stronger results would suggest the UFC rights buyer is better able to turn audiences into commercial revenue, a more supportive backdrop for TKO's rights business; weaker results would make that backdrop less reassuring. This does not by itself show how UFC programming performed or mean payments under the seven-year deal have changed.
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company
TKO's report will show whether revenue from UFC, WWE and IMG is translating into stronger segment Adjusted EBITDA.
Read revenue alongside segment Adjusted EBITDA for UFC, WWE and IMG. If both rise, media rights, live events and services are producing more operating profit; if revenue grows but EBITDA does not keep pace, costs or the mix of businesses are absorbing some of that growth. The conclusion is whether each business is converting its revenue into profit.