Stock daily read

What happened with STWD today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

STWD in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Starwood Property Trust provides financing to property borrowers by making new mortgage loans and buying existing loans, primarily in the United States, Europe and Australia. Commercial and residential lending supplies most of its revenue, chiefly through interest paid by borrowers; commercial first mortgages dominate this portfolio. It also lends to infrastructure projects, particularly power projects, whose operating cash flows support repayment. The company uses borrowing and loan securitizations to fund its investments, so financing costs affect how much interest income it keeps.

It also owns commercial properties and collects rent from tenants, including through Fundamental Income Properties. Many of these leases require tenants to pay most property operating costs. Separately, it earns fees for managing and resolving troubled commercial mortgage loans in securitized pools, alongside investments in securities backed by those loans.

Loan repayments depend heavily on the cash generated by the underlying properties and projects. The company relies on its external Manager and Starwood Capital Group to select, finance and monitor investments. Its real estate investment trust status requires it to distribute most taxable income and limits its assets and income sources; maintaining its exemption from investment-company registration also restricts the investments it can hold.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in STWD’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

STWD says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Starwood Property Trust’s results depend chiefly on commercial mortgage credit and financing conditions, while privately held Starwood Capital Group supplies important investment sourcing, management and operating resources.

  • Blackstone Mortgage Trust shares Starwood’s exposure to commercial property borrowers and financing costs: both make commercial real estate loans across North America, Europe and Australia. Its senior-loan performance and access to secured borrowing are useful checks on conditions facing Starwood’s lending business.

  • LADDER CAPITAL CORP faces the same mix of borrower credit, mortgage-securities markets and tenant income as Starwood: both make first mortgages, buy securities backed by commercial mortgages and own properties leased on net terms. Watch how Ladder allocates capital among these three businesses as market conditions change.

  • Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares Starwood’s exposure to commercial borrowers through both first mortgages and financing repaid after senior lenders. Its commercial mortgage portfolio is the clearest comparison for Starwood’s lending business, rather than its separately held real estate.

  • KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. and Starwood both lend to commercial property borrowers through senior mortgages and lower-ranking financing, sharing exposure to credit quality and demand for loans on properties in transition. KKR’s floating-rate senior loans are the part to watch for that lending demand.

  • TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. competes with Starwood to lend against institutional-quality commercial properties, with borrowers paying interest on senior mortgages. Its predominantly floating-rate U.S. first-mortgage portfolio makes lending spreads and loan maturities useful comparisons for Starwood’s refinancing exposure.

  • BrightSpire Capital, Inc. shares Starwood’s exposure to commercial borrowers and tenants through senior mortgages, lower-ranking financing and net-leased properties. Its senior loans often require a large principal repayment at maturity, making those repayments a concrete place to watch commercial refinancing conditions.

  • Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. and Starwood share meaningful multifamily exposure and provide short-term bridge loans and lower-ranking financing to property borrowers. Arbor’s Structured Business loan interest margins and portfolio growth are the closer comparison for Starwood, rather than its agency loan origination fees and servicing income.

  • Rithm Property Trust Inc.’s shift toward commercial mortgages, lower-ranking mezzanine loans and property ownership brings it into closer competition with Starwood’s lending and property businesses. Watch its new commercial real estate investments as it moves away from residential loans and mortgage-backed securities.

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  • Sunrise Realty Trust, Inc. competes with Starwood for commercial mortgage and lower-ranking mezzanine lending in overlapping Southern U.S. markets. Its generally floating-rate loans earn borrower interest and fees, making their credit spreads a useful regional comparison for Starwood.

  • Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. is a comparison for Starwood’s Fundamental portfolio, not its mortgage lending: both own long-term single-tenant net-leased commercial properties, including service facilities, and collect tenant rent. Essential Properties’ rent from service-oriented and experience-based operators is a useful window on this tenant exposure.

Agenda

in 2 daysWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. earningsEPRT

    Essential Properties Realty Trust’s report will show how service-oriented tenants are paying rent and filling properties, a useful comparison for Starwood Property Trust’s Fundamental net-lease portfolio.

  2. 10:30 AMET

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)

    For Starwood Property Trust, US crude oil and fuel stocks signal whether supply is tightening or loosening, which can move prices and affect cash flows from its oil-and-gas midstream loans and borrowers’ ability to repay.

in 7 daysMon, Oct 26

  1. Time to be announced

    TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. earningsTRTX

    TPG RE Finance Trust’s report will show loan spreads and maturity repayments for commercial-property borrowers, a check on the lending and refinancing conditions Starwood Property Trust also faces.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Starwood Property Trust, Fed rate decisions affect what its loans and investments earn versus what it pays to fund them, because borrowing costs can reset faster than income on assets that are not funded on matching terms.

in 10 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. earningsBXMT

    Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s report will show how commercial-property borrowers are repaying and whether secured funding remains available, a check on the lending market Starwood Property Trust also uses.

in 18 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. earningsThis company

    Starwood Property Trust earns interest on commercial and residential loans, and this report will show whether loan income is holding up relative to the cost of funding those loans.