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What happened with STIM today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

STIM in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
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Company

Company overview

Neuronetics combines a depression-treatment clinic business with a medical-device business. Its wholly owned Greenbrook subsidiary operates and supports U.S. treatment centers offering NeuroStar transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and SPRAVATO treatment. Clinic services provide the largest share of revenue, with payments coming from commercial insurers, government health plans and patients.

The company also sells NeuroStar Advanced Therapy Systems mainly to psychiatrists, then earns recurring revenue by selling treatment sessions as those practices use the equipment. Clinic services and these repeat sales together account for most revenue, making patient treatment volume more important than equipment sales alone.

Revenue depends on insurance coverage, reimbursement and collecting patient balances. Clinicians also need payor credentials before they can treat insured patients. State laws restricting corporate medical practice and fee splitting mean Greenbrook uses nonclinical management agreements with physician groups in some jurisdictions rather than independently owning every practice. Those relationships matter: the owner of its largest supported physician groups notified Greenbrook of his intention to leave the relationship, and failure to find a suitable replacement could materially affect the business.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in STIM’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

STIM says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Neuronetics’ results hinge on depression-treatment use at Greenbrook and other psychiatric practices, while MagVenture, Magstim and Nexstim add competition in magnetic brain stimulation (TMS) outside this list.

  • Brainsway Ltd. competes with Neuronetics for psychiatric providers’ spending on depression-treatment systems and their use: it sells and leases Deep TMS magnetic brain-stimulation systems, while Neuronetics sells NeuroStar systems and recurring treatment sessions. Watch BrainsWay’s placements with clinic networks, which underpin its installed base and expected future revenue.

  • LivaNova PLC offers patients inadequately helped by medication an alternative to Neuronetics’ noninvasive magnetic brain-stimulation treatment: implanted devices that stimulate the vagus nerve. Watch its difficult-to-treat depression business within Neuromodulation, rather than its heart-lung equipment sales, for the competitive signal relevant to NeuroStar.

  • COMPASS Pathways Plc could compete with Neuronetics’ TMS treatment through its investigational COMP360 psilocybin treatment for treatment-resistant depression, but it also works with Neuronetics’ Greenbrook clinics on delivery models. Watch approval progress: its plans to sell to U.S. healthcare providers and clinic networks, and the delivery models being studied with Greenbrook, depend on FDA approval.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Neuronetics’ decision tracks the cost of borrowing across the economy, which can change interest expense on its $70.0 million floating-rate facility and the cash left to run its NeuroStar and clinic businesses.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Neuronetics, Inc. earningsThis company

    Neuronetics’ report will show whether revenue from its acquired Greenbrook clinics can grow while treatment sessions and NeuroStar system sales hold up.

in 22 daysTue, Nov 10

  1. Time to be announced

    Brainsway Ltd. earningsBWAY

    BrainsWay’s report will show whether psychiatric clinics are placing and using more Deep TMS systems, competing with Neuronetics for the same clinic budgets and patient demand.