Stock daily read

What happened with SPIR today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SPIR in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Spire Global, Inc. sells businesses and government agencies data for monitoring aircraft, understanding weather and climate, and supporting intelligence and national-security operations. Its own satellites collect radio signals; ground stations relay the data for processing into datasets, forecasts and recommendations. Customers pay subscriptions for ongoing access to data and software, and fees for specific projects and services.

Through Space Services, customers also pay Spire to deploy sensors and satellite constellations using its LEMUR satellite platform, ground stations and cloud operations system, rather than building all that infrastructure themselves. These contracts can combine development work with recurring fees once the systems are operating. Spire sold most of its maritime business to Kpler Holding SA, but kept its satellite network and some vessel-tracking services for U.S. federal customers.

Commercial customers provide most revenue, but a large share comes from three government customers. Government funding decisions, contract suspensions and terminations therefore matter to the business. Delivering its services also depends on replacing aging satellites, securing launches from a limited group of providers and keeping its ground stations operating. Its cloud platform relies heavily on Amazon Web Services.

Spire needs government authorizations to launch and operate satellites and transmit data. Export controls can also restrict which countries, customers and uses it may serve.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SPIR’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SPIR says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Spire Global, Inc.’s results hinge on demand for satellite data and missions hosted on its infrastructure, with specialist rivals to watch: PlanetiQ in weather, Aireon in aviation, HawkEye360 in reconnaissance and Muon Space in Space Services.

  • Planet Labs competes with Spire for recurring Earth-observation data and analytics spending from overlapping government and commercial buyers; both also help customers carry out satellite missions. Planet’s recurring imagery and analytics revenue is a useful gauge of demand among those shared buyers.

  • BlackSky Technology Inc. competes with Spire for defense, intelligence and government spending on satellite intelligence and analytics, selling optical imagery while Spire uses radio-frequency observations. BlackSky’s imagery and analytics subscriptions, with customers weighted toward U.S. defense and intelligence and international governments and organizations, offer a window into demand for this intelligence.

  • Satellogic Inc. competes with Spire to sell satellite data and ready-to-use satellite capabilities to government and intelligence customers, using camera imagery rather than Spire’s radio-frequency observations. Watch Satellogic’s Data & Analytics and Space Systems revenue: it expects near-term revenue to come substantially from government, defense and intelligence customers.

  • Rocket Lab has launched Spire satellites, making it a supplier as well as a rival: it also sells customers end-to-end spacecraft design, deployment and operations that compete with Spire’s Space Services.

Agenda

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    BlackSky Technology Inc. earningsBKSY

    BlackSky Technology sells imagery and analytics subscriptions, and its report will show whether government and intelligence buyers are sustaining demand for the satellite intelligence budgets Spire also competes for.

in 20 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Rocket Lab Corporation earningsRKLB

    Rocket Lab has launched satellites for Spire and sells spacecraft services that compete with Spire’s Space Services, so its report sheds light on both a supplier and a rival.

in 22 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Spire Global, Inc. earningsThis company

    Spire Global sells satellite data and analytics by subscription, and this report will show whether renewals and customer expansions are lifting revenue faster than the cost of serving them.