Stock daily read

What happened with SPCE today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

SPCE in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Virgin Galactic offers private customers several days of preparation followed by a spaceflight with minutes of weightlessness and views of Earth. A carrier aircraft releases its reusable spaceship in the air, after which the spaceship uses rocket power. Customers reserve seats directly with the company and pay toward their flights, but many deposits are refundable: reservations still need to become completed flights to produce ticket income.

Government agencies and research organizations also pay to fly experiments, either as unaccompanied payloads or with researchers aboard. Virgin Galactic has a research-flight contract under NASA’s Flight Opportunities Program. This gives it another use for the same spaceflight system alongside passenger travel.

The company paused VSS Unity flights to develop next-generation spaceships and is preparing to restart commercial service. With flights paused, it has no spaceflight revenue, and its limited revenue has come mainly from astronaut-community access fees. Restarting depends on completing and testing the new vehicles, obtaining the required new FAA launch license and securing sufficient funding. Thereafter, ticket income depends on delivering reserved flights and maintaining a regular flight schedule.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in SPCE’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

SPCE says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Virgin Galactic’s results hinge on safely restarting and scaling next-generation spaceflights; privately held Blue Origin remains its primary space-tourism competitor despite its announced pause in suborbital flights.

  • Rocket Lab competes with Virgin Galactic to carry research payloads on flights below orbit, not to carry space tourists: Rocket Lab sells rocket launches, while Virgin Galactic earns fees flying experiments for government agencies, research organizations and other customers. Watch Rocket Lab’s suborbital launch business for competition facing Virgin Galactic’s research-flight revenue.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Virgin Galactic’s substantial debt and need for financing make the Fed’s policy rate—the benchmark that influences borrowing costs—relevant to what it may pay or be able to raise on future debt; its existing notes have fixed coupons.

in 21 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Rocket Lab Corporation earningsRKLB

    Rocket Lab’s report will show whether research customers are using its suborbital rocket launches, which compete with Virgin Galactic’s experiment flights for research missions.

in 24 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company

    Virgin Galactic’s report will show whether its next-generation ships have begun generating spaceflight revenue and how heavily development and operating costs still outweigh sales.