Stock daily read

What happened with RFL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

RFL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Rafael Holdings focuses on developing Trappsol Cyclo through its wholly owned subsidiary Cyclo. This candidate is in a pivotal Phase 3 trial for Niemann-Pick disease type C1, or NPC1. Rafael owns its manufacturing and commercial rights and also holds interests in other pharmaceutical and medical-device developers.

Today, Cyclo’s product sales provide most revenue. Customers buying cyclodextrin research products supply a substantial share of that revenue, with one major customer accounting for a large share of the company’s total sales. Rafael also earns rent from office space in Jerusalem leased to two tenants, including an IDT subsidiary.

The drug-development business depends heavily on completing the Trappsol Cyclo trial and obtaining regulatory approval before selling it as a treatment. Rafael relies on outside manufacturers both for its research products and for Trappsol Cyclo. Advancing the drug toward a commercial launch may require additional capital.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in RFL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

RFL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Rafael Holdings’ prospects hinge on Trappsol Cyclo’s pivotal NPC1 trial, regulatory approval and how it stands apart from treatments offered by Zevra and other competitors, including IntraBio.

  • Zevra Therapeutics already sells MIPLYFFA in the United States for neurological manifestations of NPC, competing for patients Rafael Holdings hopes to treat with its trial-stage Trappsol Cyclo. Watch MIPLYFFA prescriptions that turn into paid dispensing: they show how much of that patient market Zevra is reaching before Rafael can launch an approved treatment.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Rafael Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company

    Rafael Holdings’ report will show whether progress in Trappsol Cyclo’s pivotal trial is keeping pace with the losses in its healthcare business.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. earningsZVRA

    Zevra Therapeutics’ report will show how many MIPLYFFA prescriptions become paid dispensing, indicating its reach among U.S. NPC patients Rafael Holdings hopes to treat with Trappsol Cyclo.