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What happened with RDN today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

RDN in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Radian Group Inc.’s main business is U.S. private mortgage insurance. Mortgage lenders arrange coverage on home loans where borrowers have a small down payment or limited home equity. Borrowers or lenders pay Radian premiums, either upfront or over time, in exchange for covering part of the losses if borrowers default. This protection also helps lenders sell loans into the secondary mortgage market. Radian invests assets held to pay future claims, earning investment income alongside premiums.

Radian also owns Inigo, a specialty insurer and reinsurer it acquired in 2026. Through the Lloyd’s of London market, Inigo receives business from brokers and selected partners, collecting premiums to cover risks for policyholders and other insurers. This gives Radian an international insurance business beyond mortgages. Radian has announced plans to sell its Mortgage Conduit, Title and Real Estate Services businesses.

The mortgage business depends on lenders originating low-down-payment loans, existing policies remaining in force, and borrowers’ ability to repay. Much of its earned mortgage insurance premium comes from policies written in earlier years. It also depends heavily on government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, which buy most of the insured loans sold into the secondary market and are the main beneficiaries of most policies. Radian Guaranty must meet their asset requirements to remain eligible to insure those loans. Insurance capital and solvency rules, including Lloyd’s oversight of Inigo, also limit how much business the subsidiaries can write and how much cash they can distribute to the parent.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in RDN’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
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  • Could go wrong
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Moat

RDN says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Radian’s results hinge on U.S. mortgage lending and defaults, while its acquisition of Inigo adds a significant dependence on global specialty insurance pricing and losses.

  • MGIC Investment Corp. competes with Radian for U.S. lenders’ business protecting residential mortgages against default losses, with similarly sized insured portfolios. At year-end 2025, MGIC covered $303.1 billion of outstanding mortgages versus Radian’s $282.5 billion, making its new mortgage insurance business a useful comparison for Radian’s growth.

  • Essent Group LTD competes with Radian to sell U.S. lenders insurance against losses on residential loans eligible for purchase by government-sponsored mortgage companies. Its mortgage insurance segment is the closest comparison for Radian’s lender business, rather than its title insurance and settlement services.

  • NMI Holdings Inc. and Radian compete for the same U.S. mortgage lenders, insuring first-lien home loans against default losses and tailoring premiums to each borrower’s risk. NMI’s Rate GPS pricing on newly insured loans offers a comparison for the pricing competition facing Radian’s RADAR Rates.

  • Enact Holdings, Inc. competes with Radian for lenders insuring low-down-payment U.S. home loans sold to government-sponsored mortgage companies, covering part of the loss if borrowers fail to pay. Watch Enact’s share of new mortgage insurance business for a read on competition for those lenders.

  • Arch Capital Group Ltd competes with Radian to insure U.S. lenders’ mortgages and also sells specialty insurance through Lloyd’s, overlapping Radian’s expansion through Inigo. Arch’s specialty insurance pricing and losses offer a comparison for the new risks Radian has taken on beyond U.S. mortgages.

  • Genworth Financial, Inc. competes with Radian through Enact, which sells lenders protection against losses on low-down-payment U.S. mortgages; its legacy insurance businesses add risks unrelated to Radian. Focus on Genworth’s Enact segment rather than its legacy long-term care, life insurance and annuity results.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Arch Capital Group Ltd earningsACGL

    Arch Capital's specialty insurance pricing and claims will give Radian a peer-market read on the conditions facing its newly acquired specialty business.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Radian Group Inc. earningsThis company

    Radian earns premiums by insuring mortgages, and its report will show whether new business adds income without claims and the capital needed to keep insuring GSE-backed loans eating into the gain.

  2. Time to be announced

    MGIC Investment Corp. earningsMTG

    MGIC's report will show how much new mortgage insurance it wins from lenders, giving Radian a read on demand and competition for the same business.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    NMI Holdings Inc. earningsNMIH

    NMI's report will show how its new mortgage insurance business compares with the premiums it earns per insured dollar, a read on pricing pressure as it competes with Radian for lenders.