RCI in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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What happened with RCI today?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Wireless is Rogers Communications’ largest revenue source, followed by its cable business; together they generate most of its sales. Customers pay for mobile voice and data under Rogers, Fido and chatr, and for home Internet and television services, including Xfinity packages. Rogers also sells phones and provides network connections to businesses, public-sector customers and other carriers. Its business is overwhelmingly Canadian and depends on the wireless, cable and fibre networks that deliver these services.
Sports and media provide a smaller, distinct source of income. Rogers sells access to programming through Sportsnet and Sportsnet+, and collects advertising and sponsorship payments. It owns the Toronto Blue Jays and Rogers Centre and controls Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE), whose teams include the Toronto Maple Leafs and Toronto Raptors. These sports businesses also earn money from tickets, venue spending and league distributions. Its national NHL media rights support television and streaming coverage and allow it to sublicense programming.
Canadian telecommunications and broadcasting laws limit foreign ownership and restrict changes in control and licence transfers. Rogers can restrict share transfers and voting rights to protect its eligibility to hold those licences.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
BCE's Bell competes with Rogers for Canadian customers paying for mobile, broadband, television and business connectivity. Bell's Canadian mobile and Internet customer numbers are worth watching for competition facing Rogers, rather than BCE's U.S. broadband business.
TELUS competes with Rogers for Canadian customers buying mobile service and fixed broadband. Watch its mobile network and fixed data revenues: subscriber growth and revenue per customer helped both grow in 2023, making them more relevant to Rogers than TELUS's health services growth.
Comcast and Rogers both sell broadband, mobile and television services to households and businesses and operate media businesses, so changing connectivity and viewing habits matter to both. Comcast's residential broadband, wireless and video business offers a closer comparison for Rogers than its theme parks.
Charter and Rogers both depend on households choosing cable broadband bundled with mobile and television services; Charter earns most of its revenue from customers' monthly subscription fees. Watch whether Charter's Spectrum bundles attract customers and keep them from leaving—the same household choices matter to Rogers.
Rogers buys cable and connectivity equipment from Vistance Networks, which names it as a major customer; that equipment helps Rogers deliver Internet and television services to paying customers. Watch Vistance's Aurora cable-network equipment business for developments relevant to Rogers's broadband infrastructure.
Rogers Communications, Inc. earningsThis company
Rogers’ report will show whether revenue from wireless and cable services is converting into operating earnings and cash.
Read Wireless and Cable service revenue alongside adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA is Rogers’ measure of segment profit; free cash flow is the cash it uses to assess what remains for debt repayment or reinvestment after capital spending, interest, cash taxes and other items. If service revenue grows and both measures hold up, recurring subscriptions are still leaving earnings and cash after the costs of serving customers and investing in the network. If service revenue stalls or falls and earnings or cash weaken too, that support is fading.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Fed decision signals whether US borrowing rates are moving up or down; if that change reaches Rogers’ short-term borrowings or credit facilities, it can raise or lower the interest Rogers pays and reduce or increase income left after financing costs.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the Fed rate is above the estimate, higher US rates could make Rogers’ borrowing costs rise where its short-term funding rates move with them, leaving less income after interest expense.
If it comes in below expectations
If the Fed rate is below the estimate, lower US rates could reduce Rogers’ borrowing costs where its short-term funding rates move with them, leaving more income after interest expense.
BCE, Inc. earningsBCE
BCE’s report will show how strongly its Canadian mobile and Internet business competes with Rogers for the same customers.
Look at Bell’s Canadian mobile and Internet customer numbers, then whether service revenue holds or grows too. If both hold up, Bell is retaining customers and earning from those services, keeping competition strong for Rogers among the same customers. If both weaken, pressure from Bell may ease, but that does not establish that those customers are switching to Rogers.
Charter Comm Inc Del earningsCHTR
Charter’s report will show whether US households are still choosing and keeping Spectrum’s broadband, mobile and TV bundles, a demand signal for Rogers’ cable business.
Read changes in Charter’s broadband customers alongside subscription revenue: together they show whether households are staying and continuing to pay monthly fees. If both hold up, US consumers are still accepting cable broadband bundles, a supportive demand signal for Rogers’ residential broadband and bundles. If customers leave and revenue weakens too, bundle appeal may be under pressure; US results do not establish the same trend in Canada.