QFIN in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Qfin Holdings helps consumers and small and medium-sized businesses in China obtain credit, including borrowers underserved by existing lenders. Borrowers primarily use its Qifu Jietiao app. Qfin finds applicants, uses its Argus Engine to assess creditworthiness and fraud risk, matches them with funding institutions, and handles loan servicing and collections. Its funding partners are mainly banks and consumer finance companies, which retain their own loan-approval decisions.
Most revenue comes from business in which Qfin bears the risk that borrowers will not repay. It earns financing income from loans funded through Fuzhou Microcredit and trust arrangements, and earns fees from financial institutions for arranging, servicing and guaranteeing partner-funded loans. Financing income is its largest revenue source. A smaller part of the business provides loan matching, referrals and technology services without taking credit risk, earning fees from financial institutions and other lending platforms.
The business depends on borrowers repaying and funding partners continuing to supply credit; a small group of partners supplies a substantial share of funding. Commercial banks may work only with loan-facilitation platforms on their approved whitelists, and Chinese rules cap borrowers’ total financing costs and prohibit undisclosed fees. Loans funded by its micro-lender must also move toward a pricing ceiling linked to China’s benchmark Loan Prime Rate.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
FinVolution competes with Qfin in China for borrowers and institutional funding partners; both earn fees from institutions for introducing borrowers, assessing credit and servicing loans. Watch FinVolution’s China business rather than its international expansion for the closer read on Qfin’s competitive position.
Lexin competes with Qfin for Chinese consumer borrowers and financial-institution partners by screening borrowers, matching loans, servicing them and covering credit risk. Its Fenqile lending and services to banks are the businesses to watch: Lexin serves financial institutions and also takes credit risk, including under its tech-empowerment model.
X Financial competes with Qfin to match personal-loan borrowers in mainland China with institutional funders, earning fees from institutions or indirectly from borrowers for matching, servicing and guarantees, plus lending income. Watch Xiaoying Credit Loan volume, which accounted for all its facilitated loans in 2025, for the clearest view of its activity in this shared market.
Jiayin competes with Qfin for underserved Chinese consumer borrowers, introducing them to institutional funders and providing preliminary risk assessments. Its mostly unsecured consumer loans, usually no longer than 12 months, are the activity to watch; most revenue comes from services to funding institutions and cooperating guarantee companies.
Yiren Digital competes with Qfin in China to find borrowers, connect them with institutional lenders, manage loans and guarantee credit risk, charging funding partners and, where applicable, guarantee companies for services. Watch its credit-solution revenue rather than total revenue for the closer comparison with Qfin, since Yiren also runs an insurance brokerage.
Lufax overlaps with Qfin in China’s unsecured retail lending and consumer finance, but its substantial secured and small-business lending makes it a less direct comparison. Watch its unsecured and consumer-finance loan balances separately rather than total lending: Qfin mainly earns fees from funding institutions, while Lufax earns nearly all its income from enabling loans through its retail credit business and consumer-finance subsidiary.
Qfin Holdings, Inc. earningsThis company
Qfin earns interest on loans it funds and fees from partner-funded loans it facilitates or guarantees; its report will show whether that credit-driven revenue is keeping pace with the provisions for credit risk.
Read credit-driven revenue alongside provisions for loans and guarantees. Revenue rising without a comparable increase in provisions would suggest Qfin’s own lending and guaranteed partner loans are still earning enough to cover their risk; weaker revenue with higher provisions would suggest credit costs are eating into those returns. The question is whether credit-driven growth is still paying for its risk.
FinVolution Group earningsFINV
FinVolution’s report will show whether its China business is still matching borrowers with institutional funders, a direct read on the market where it competes with Qfin.
Focus on FinVolution’s China loan facilitation and related service revenue, not its overseas expansion. Strength in both would suggest borrowers and funding partners remain active in the market it shares with Qfin; weakness would point to softer matching activity and a tougher environment for Qfin to attract borrowers or funding partners.