OSUR in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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OraSure Technologies earns most of its revenue from diagnostic products, led by OraQuick HIV tests. It sells tests to healthcare providers and public-health programs, directly or through distributors, and also sells HIV self-tests to consumers. These products let users test at the point of care or at home rather than send a sample to a laboratory. Many public-health customers depend on government funding to buy tests.
Sample-management products form its other substantial business. Genetic-testing companies and laboratories buy collection devices so their customers can provide specimens for testing. Oragene and ORAcollect collect saliva and preserve its genetic material at room temperature. Consumer-genetics and clinical-diagnostic customers supply most of this business’s revenue, with repeat purchases accounting for a significant share of sales; academic and research customers also buy these products.
Sales depend on regulatory permission and reliable supplies. OraQuick relies on a limited number of suppliers for critical materials, and replacing those materials requires FDA approval and further development work. Some sample-management products are sold in the United States for research use only and are not promoted for clinical diagnosis.
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OraSure’s results also hinge on HIV-program funding and genetics laboratories’ demand for specimen-collection devices—a substantial business these peers do not represent.
Abbott competes with OraSure for clinical and public-health buyers, selling Determine HIV and Bioline infectious-disease tests against OraSure’s rapid tests.
QuidelOrtho Corporation competes with OraSure in rapid tests sold to hospitals, physician offices and other settings where patients receive care. Its point-of-care product revenue is the line to watch for demand among those shared customer groups.
OraSure depends on Grifols for ingredients used in diagnostic tests, called antigens, so supply disruptions could constrain test production. Watch Grifols’ antigen-supply news: OraSure has few sources for critical OraQuick inputs, and replacing them requires FDA approval and additional development work.
Abbott Laboratories earningsABT
Abbott’s report will show whether clinical and public-health buyers are sustaining demand for the HIV and infectious-disease rapid tests that compete with OraSure’s.
Look at sales of Abbott’s Determine HIV and Bioline infectious-disease tests. Stronger sales would show shared clinical and public-health buyers are still purchasing rapid tests, a steadier demand setting for OraSure; weaker sales would point to tighter purchasing among those buyers and a harder market for OraSure to win orders.
OraSure Technologies Inc earningsThis company
OraSure Technologies’ report will show whether HIV rapid-test and genetic-sample collection sales can steady revenue enough to support its research and operating costs.
Read HIV test revenue and genetic-sample collection revenue separately, then compare them with gross margin and operating cash flow. Stabilizing sales alongside improving margins and cash use would show customer demand is supporting production and operations; further sales declines with weaker margins or cash flow would show funding cuts and genomics customers’ spending restraint are still squeezing the business.
QuidelOrtho Corporation earningsQDEL
QuidelOrtho’s report will show whether hospitals and clinics are buying more or fewer point-of-care tests, in the same care settings where OraSure sells rapid tests.
Look at QuidelOrtho’s point-of-care product revenue. Growth would show that shared buyers such as hospitals and physician offices are still purchasing tests performed at or near the care site, a steadier demand backdrop for OraSure’s rapid tests; a decline would point to weaker purchasing in those settings, but would not settle OraSure’s own sales.
Grifois, S.A. earningsGRFS
Grifols’ report may offer clues about antigen supply; OraSure needs these inputs for OraQuick tests, and qualifying alternatives requires development work and FDA approval.
Watch for Grifols disclosures about antigen supply or production disruption. Steady supply would reduce the risk of interruption to an input OraSure needs for OraQuick; a disruption would raise the risk of production delays or higher costs because OraSure has few sources and alternatives require development work and FDA approval.