ONON in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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On Holding AG serves athletes and active consumers with On-branded products for running, other sports and everyday wear. Shoes, including the Cloudsurfer range, account for the overwhelming majority of sales; apparel and accessories are much smaller businesses. Its in-house teams develop and test products in Switzerland, while outside manufacturers make substantially all of them.
Wholesale partners buy products to resell and provide most of On’s revenue. Consumers also buy through its own stores and e-commerce platform. Wholesale partners generally order individually rather than under long-term contracts, so continued orders and partners’ ability to pay matter to the business.
Sales depend on consumers valuing the On brand, product performance and design enough to pay premium prices. Production relies on a concentrated supplier network, with most footwear made in Vietnam. For certain Roger Federer-related products, On also depends on rights licensed from Tenro AG: it does not own THE ROGER brand, and losing the license could require it to stop developing and selling those products.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
On’s results hinge chiefly on winning premium running and everyday-footwear buyers against rivals including ASICS, adidas, Brooks Sports and New Balance, none of which appears on this list.
Deckers Outdoor’s HOKA competes directly with On for buyers of performance-running and everyday athletic shoes. Watch HOKA’s sales rather than Deckers’ total: shoes accounted for 93% of On’s fiscal 2025 net sales, while Deckers also owns UGG and other brands.
Nike and On compete worldwide for consumers buying athletic shoes for sport and casual wear. Nike’s athletic-footwear sales and new shoe technologies are worth watching against On’s pitch of performance and everyday design.
Wolverine World Wide competes for On’s running-shoe buyers through Saucony and outdoor-footwear buyers through Merrell. News and sales from those two brands are more relevant to On than Wolverine’s work-footwear business.
Amer Sports competes with On for premium running, outdoor and everyday sportswear buyers through Salomon footwear and Arc’teryx outdoor apparel. Watch Salomon’s footwear and Arc’teryx’s ability to command premium prices for technical clothing.
Under Armour competes with On for performance-footwear and training-apparel buyers, but clothing dominates its business. Apparel made up approximately 68% of Under Armour’s fiscal 2026 net revenue, so its training-apparel sales are a more focused comparison for On’s growing Performance Training clothing line than its total revenue.
Birkenstock and On both rely on consumers paying for distinctive branded comfort footwear: Birkenstock sells footbed-based shoes, while On brings athletic performance to everyday shoes. Demand for Birkenstock’s recognizable Arizona and Boston styles offers a comparison for that willingness to spend, rather than for running-shoe competition.
Deckers Outdoor Corp earningsDECK
Deckers' HOKA sales will show which brand has stronger momentum as it competes with On for performance-running and everyday athletic-shoe buyers.
Focus on HOKA sales, not Deckers' total sales across its brands, and compare them with On's footwear sales when On reports. Faster HOKA growth points to stronger momentum among overlapping buyers and potentially more competitive pressure on On; faster On footwear growth points to relative strength for On. The brands and reporting measures are not identical, so this comparison alone cannot prove a change in market share or show whether demand for the whole running-shoe category is rising or falling.
On Holding AG earningsThis company
On's report will show whether buyers keep choosing its premium shoes through both wholesale retailers and its own stores, and whether those sales support gross profit.
Read sales growth in wholesale and direct-to-consumer together with gross margin, the share of sales left after product costs. Growth in both channels with a steady or rising margin means retailers and direct customers are buying while On preserves the profit it earns after product costs. If wholesale sales weaken and margin falls, retailers may be ordering less as higher costs or heavier discounting squeeze product economics; the question is whether direct sales can make up the difference.
Retail Sales MoM (Oct)
Retail sales track how much consumers spend at stores, and stronger US spending can lift demand for On’s premium shoes and apparel, supporting wholesale orders and sales through its own stores and e-commerce.
If retail sales rise, that points to firmer consumer spending that may support orders for On’s premium products and demand in its own stores and online; if they fall, retail partners may order less and shoppers may become more price-sensitive, pressuring sales or prompting discounts.