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What happened with NEON today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NEON in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Neonode supplies technology that helps products detect people, objects, touch and gestures. Equipment makers and automotive suppliers build the technology into their own products and typically pay Neonode a license fee for each unit shipped. Most revenue comes from licensing, chiefly tied to printers and automotive infotainment systems. Neonode also charges customers to develop applications and integrate its technology into their products.

The company is shifting its development focus to MultiSensing, software that uses machine learning to detect and track people and objects in camera footage, sold mainly to automotive customers. Its zForce technology enables optical touch, contactless touch and gesture sensing. Neonode no longer sells zForce to new customers but continues supporting existing users. It has also phased out its touch-sensor module product business.

Revenue depends heavily on a small group of customers, including Seiko Epson, Alps Alpine, Hewlett-Packard and an unnamed commercial-vehicle manufacturer; Seiko Epson is the largest. Licensing income depends on customers completing product development and shipping products, rather than simply choosing Neonode’s technology. Customers also need specialized chips supplied by Texas Instruments and ST Microelectronics, which are difficult to replace once qualified for a product.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NEON’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NEON says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Neonode’s results hinge on concentrated legacy licensing revenue from customers including Seiko Epson, Alps Alpine and Hewlett-Packard, and on winning automotive machine-perception programs against rivals including SmartEye and Seeing Machines.

  • Xperi competes with Neonode to sell automotive customers software that monitors drivers and vehicle cabins, so its wins in those programs matter more to Neonode holders than its TV business. Watch Xperi’s driver- and in-cabin-monitoring customer wins for signs of the competition facing Neonode’s MultiSensing software.

  • Texas Instruments both competes with Neonode’s optical gesture sensing through radar and ultrasonic chips and makes two specialized chips, called ASICs, that Neonode’s licensing customers buy and find hard to replace. Watch its ability to supply those chips: shortages could keep customers from building products using Neonode’s licensed technology and hurt Neonode’s licensing business.

Agenda

in 2 daysWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Texas Instruments Incorporated earningsTXN

    Texas Instruments competes with Neonode in sensing and makes specialized chips that Neonode's licensing customers rely on, so its report will show whether supply remains dependable.

in 23 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Neonode Inc. earningsThis company

    Neonode earns license fees when customers ship products using its technology, and this report will show whether newer licensing is offsetting declines in printer and older car-touch royalties.