Stock daily read

What happened with MESO today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

MESO in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Mesoblast’s main product, Ryoncil, treats children with acute graft-versus-host disease when steroid treatment does not work. It is a cell therapy made from donated bone marrow. The company sells it through its U.S. commercial operation to transplant centers, and these sales provide most of its revenue. It also receives royalties from JCR Pharmaceuticals, which sells TEMCELL in Japan for acute graft-versus-host disease in children and adults.

Ryoncil’s U.S. approval is limited to this pediatric indication. Sales depend on transplant centers adopting the treatment and government and private health payors providing reimbursement that makes its use financially workable for hospitals. Mesoblast lacks its own manufacturing capability and relies on Lonza to produce Ryoncil, with other providers handling storage and delivery under tightly controlled, extremely cold conditions.

Mesoblast is also developing treatments for chronic lower back pain, heart failure and adult acute graft-versus-host disease; these uses still require regulatory approval. The company has begun selling a product but is not yet profitable and needs additional capital to support continued development and commercialization.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in MESO’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

MESO says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Mesoblast’s results hinge chiefly on U.S. transplant centers adopting Ryoncil and Lonza supplying its manufacturing, with JCR Pharmaceuticals contributing a smaller Japanese royalty stream.

  • BioCardia, Inc.’s CardiAMP and CardiALLO heart-failure cell therapies compete with Mesoblast’s Revascor program, not its current Ryoncil business. BioCardia receives payments from partners for delivery-system services and products; watch its heart-failure trial progress for signs of competition facing Revascor.

Agenda

in 22 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced

    BioCardia, Inc. earningsBCDA

    BioCardia’s report will show whether its heart-failure cell-therapy programs are advancing, a sign of how directly they may compete with Mesoblast’s Revascor program.