Stock daily read

What happened with FER today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

FER in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Ferrovial invests in roads that drivers pay to use and also builds infrastructure for public and private clients. Through Cintra, it finances, develops and operates roads under long-term government concessions. Drivers pay tolls to the road companies, which distribute dividends to Ferrovial; some other concessions instead receive contractual payments from public authorities. Its toll-road cash receipts lean heavily on Canada's 407 ETR and a small group of U.S. roads, including express lanes whose prices change with congestion.

Its construction businesses, including Ferrovial Construction and Poland's Budimex, earn from contracts to design and build infrastructure. Public-sector clients supply most of the construction order book, making government project funding important. Earnings also depend on controlling construction costs and meeting delivery commitments. The parent company has no direct cash-generating operations and relies on its group companies for funding.

Ferrovial also invests in and operates airports. At Dalaman in Turkey, airlines pay passenger charges, while shops and other commercial activities provide additional income. The planned New Terminal One at New York's JFK airport is intended to earn airline passenger fees and commercial income, but its first-phase opening has been delayed. Airport income depends on passenger traffic and spending; toll-road income depends on traffic and permitted prices. Concession terms govern those prices, and governments can restrict tolls or change or terminate concessions.

Read allShow less
Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in FER’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

FER says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

These construction peers cover only part of Ferrovial’s business: its core toll-road distributions depend on traffic and pricing at Canada’s 407 ETR and its U.S. managed lanes.

  • Granite Construction competes with Ferrovial for government-funded roads, bridges, airports and water infrastructure, making its public construction work the closest comparison. Watch those projects rather than Granite’s separate sales of asphalt and aggregates to outside customers.

  • Fluor competes with Ferrovial for large infrastructure contracts in which clients pay them to design and build projects, but Fluor has much more industrial exposure. Its Urban Solutions infrastructure work offers a closer comparison for Ferrovial than its oil, gas and chemicals projects.

  • Southland Holdings, Inc. competes with Ferrovial for major North American road, bridge and water-infrastructure projects, earning revenue by designing and building them for project owners. Its Transportation road and bridge work and Civil water-pipeline and treatment-plant work are the areas to compare with Ferrovial’s construction business.

  • Construction Partners, Inc. competes with Ferrovial for Sunbelt road construction, with both operating in Texas and North Carolina and serving public and private project owners. Its road-building and maintenance work in those states is more relevant to Ferrovial than its sales of construction materials.

  • Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. and Ferrovial compete to build highways, bridges and airport infrastructure for U.S. project owners, although Sterling also has substantial data-center exposure. Its Transportation Solutions results are the closer comparison for Ferrovial, rather than its data-center site-development and electrical work.

Agenda

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Ferrovial N.V. earningsThis company

    Ferrovial's toll roads turn traffic and tolls into concession income, and this report will show whether those businesses are still sending cash to the parent through dividends.

in 10 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Granite Construction Inc. earningsGVA

    Granite Construction's report will show demand and construction margins in U.S. public infrastructure work, offering a peer comparison for Ferrovial's public-project business.