Stock daily read

What happened with CIG today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CIG in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

CEMIG is a Brazilian utility controlled by the state of Minas Gerais. Electricity supply brings in most of its revenue, and distribution is its largest business. Its subsidiary CEMIG D buys power and delivers it to homes and businesses across nearly all of Minas Gerais, billing regulated customers at rates set by electricity regulator ANEEL. Customers who choose their own electricity supplier still pay CEMIG D to use its local network.

The group also sells electricity under negotiated contracts to customers in Minas Gerais and other Brazilian states, and supplies other power companies. Purchased electricity accounts for much more of its supply than its own generation, which is predominantly hydroelectric. Its transmission companies earn regulated revenue for keeping grid assets available, rather than for the volume of electricity carried. Gasmig adds a smaller business supplying natural gas and providing pipeline capacity under an exclusive statewide concession.

The business depends on concessions and authorizations, reliable networks and regulated rates that cover costs and investment. Its generators must sell through public auctions in the regulated market or negotiated contracts in the free market, rather than directly to distributors. Rainfall affects both hydroelectric output and the price of purchased power; recovery of higher distribution purchase costs through later tariff adjustments can lag the cash outlay.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CIG’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CIG says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

CEMIG’s results hinge mainly on Minas Gerais electricity demand, ANEEL’s tariff decisions, Brazilian hydrology and power-purchase prices, with Itaipu worth watching for compulsory purchases.

  • Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL shares CEMIG’s exposure to Brazilian electricity demand, tariff decisions and power prices: both distribute electricity to customers under concessions and sell generation into regulated and competitive markets, with Copel focused on Paraná and CEMIG on Minas Gerais. Watch Copel’s cost of buying power to resell to its regulated customers, including compulsory Itaipu purchases, for a read on the purchasing pressures CEMIG faces.

Agenda

in 23 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Companhia Energetica De Minas Gerais-CEMIG earningsThis company

    CEMIG sells electricity to customers and buys power for resale, and this report will show whether sales volumes and tariff adjustments are keeping up with rising power-purchase costs.

  2. Time to be announced

    Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL earningsELPC

    COPEL supplies regulated customers and buys power for resale in Paraná; its report will show how purchase costs compare with sales revenue, a read-through for CEMIG’s distribution business in Minas Gerais.