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What happened with CAPL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CAPL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

CrossAmerica Partners LP operates gas stations and convenience stores in the United States and supplies fuel to other station operators. Fuel sales account for most of its revenue, with retail contributing more revenue than wholesale. At company-operated sites, it buys the fuel and store inventory, sets fuel prices, and earns margins on motorists’ fuel, food and merchandise purchases. At agent-operated sites, it still owns and prices the fuel but pays the operator a commission on each gallon sold.

Its wholesale business supplies station dealers under exclusive contracts and arranges delivery. Dealers pay for the fuel; those leasing sites from CrossAmerica also pay rent. Much of its fuel volume is priced using the terminal wholesale price plus a fixed per-gallon markup, while other sales use market-based pricing. It distributes mostly branded fuel, including Exxon, Mobil, BP and Marathon.

Cash generation depends on fuel volumes, the margin earned per gallon and convenience-store sales. Fuel purchasing is concentrated among a few suppliers, and one supplier provides most of its retail merchandise. Third-party carriers transport all its fuel to stations. Retail margins also depend on how quickly it can pass changing fuel costs to customers. Environmental rules govern fuel storage and site operations, and CrossAmerica can be responsible for cleaning up contamination at current or former sites even when it did not cause it.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CAPL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CAPL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

CrossAmerica’s results hinge on station fuel volumes, retail margins and convenience sales, while BP and Marathon are important branded-fuel relationships to watch beyond this list.

  • Sunoco competes with CrossAmerica for independent dealers and commission-agent stations: both supply fuel, lease station properties to operators and sell convenience-store goods. Watch Sunoco’s fuel distribution and store merchandise sales as comparisons for CrossAmerica’s wholesale and retail businesses.

  • Global Partners competes with CrossAmerica in supplying gasoline stations and selling fuel and convenience goods to station customers. Its Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations business offers a closer comparison for CrossAmerica than its broader wholesale sales of heating oil and other fuels.

  • ARKO Petroleum competes directly with CrossAmerica for fuel-supply business from third-party dealer stations, buying fuel from refiners and oil companies and delivering it to customers. Watch its wholesale gallons sold and fuel contribution rather than fuel sales to ARKO Parent’s retail sites when comparing dealer-supply performance.

  • CrossAmerica depends on ExxonMobil for branded motor fuel that it resells to stations, and ranks among ExxonMobil’s ten largest independent U.S. distributors by volume. ExxonMobil’s branded-fuel supply relationships are the relevant news to watch for CrossAmerica, rather than its wider oil and gas production business.

  • Valero connects CrossAmerica to the fuel-making side of the business: Valero manufactures and sells transportation fuels to wholesale buyers, while CrossAmerica distributes Valero-branded fuel through its station network. Watch Valero’s refining and refined-fuel marketing business for the closest connection to CrossAmerica’s station fuel supply.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. 10:30 AMET

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)

    CrossAmerica Partners’ weekly US crude-oil and gasoline stock readings track how much fuel is held in storage, which can shift the cost of fuel it buys and sells and the margin on fuel sales at its company-operated, commission-agent and wholesale-supplied sites.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Valero Energy Corporation earningsVLO

    Valero’s refining and refined-fuel marketing report will show how its fuel sales to wholesale buyers are faring, a market signal for the Valero-branded fuel CrossAmerica Partners resells.

in 10 daysFri, Oct 30

  1. Time to be announced

    ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation earningsXOM

    ExxonMobil’s report will show how its branded-fuel supply relationships are faring, offering a signal about the Exxon- and Mobil-branded fuel CrossAmerica Partners resells.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    SUNOCO L.P. earningsSUN

    Sunoco’s fuel distribution and store merchandise results will show how demand is faring in the dealer and station businesses it shares with CrossAmerica Partners.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    CrossAmerica Partners LP earningsThis company

    CrossAmerica Partners’ report will show whether gross profit from retail fuel and convenience goods can offset pressure on wholesale volume and rent income.