Stock daily read

What happened with BSBR today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

BSBR in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Banco Santander (Brasil) mainly serves individuals and businesses in Brazil. Customer deposits supply most of its funding, which it uses to make loans and hold interest-earning investments. Borrowers pay interest to finance spending, property purchases and business operations; Santander Financiamentos is its main channel for financing vehicles, goods and services. Loans provide the largest source of interest income, while debt securities also contribute. After funding costs, net interest income supplies most of the bank’s revenue.

Commercial Banking accounts for most revenue. Alongside lending, the bank earns fees when customers use cards, make business payments or buy insurance and investment services. Santander Corporate & Investment Banking (SCIB) serves large Brazilian and multinational companies, arranging financing, supporting trade and cash flows, advising on corporate transactions and helping clients manage market exposures.

The business depends on retaining deposits at workable costs and on Brazilian borrowers’ ability to repay. Interest rates affect both lending income and funding costs, as well as demand for credit. Brazilian Central Bank rules require the bank to keep part of customer funding in compulsory deposits rather than lend or invest it freely, while capital requirements also constrain its capacity to expand.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in BSBR’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

BSBR says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Santander Brasil’s results hinge on Brazilian interest rates and borrowers’ ability to repay; Banco do Brasil and Caixa Econômica Federal are also important competitors to watch outside this list.

  • Itaú Unibanco competes with Santander Brasil for Brazilian consumers’ loans and cards, businesses’ banking needs and corporate financing and advisory work. Its share of personal loans and credit-card balances shows the competitive pressure on Santander Brasil’s retail business.

  • Bradesco competes with Santander Brasil for loans, deposits, cards and insurance sold to Brazilian individuals and businesses. Its lending to middle- and low-income customers is a useful place to watch competition for household borrowers.

  • Banco Santander controls Santander Brasil, linking the Brazilian bank to the group’s earnings, capital oversight and global network for serving large companies. Watch the parent’s credit rating: it partly determines Santander Brasil’s own rating and can affect its borrowing costs and access to funding markets.

  • Nu Holdings’ Nubank competes with Santander Brasil for Brazilian consumers’ card balances, loans, deposits and everyday banking through its mobile app. Watch its Brazilian customer activity for a read on competition for the retail relationships that supply Santander Brasil’s deposits and card business.

  • Inter & Co. Inc. competes with Santander Brasil for Brazilian customers and deposits through digital accounts and financial services. Watch Inter’s deposit base and funding cost: it attributes its funding-cost advantage to deposits, while retail deposits are also a principal funding source for Santander Brasil.

  • XP Inc. competes with Santander Brasil for Brazilian investors’ assets and fees from investment products, asset management and related services. Watch assets flowing onto XP’s platform: Santander Brasil’s asset-management and pension-fund fees also depend on the volume of assets customers entrust to it.

  • AGI Inc competes with Santander Brasil in secured loans for Brazilian workers and benefit recipients, especially loans repaid through deductions from pay. Watch AGI’s lending to public- and private-sector workers and social security beneficiaries for competition in this business, where Santander Brasil says automatic salary deductions reduce credit risk.

Agenda

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Banco Bradesco S.A. earningsBBD

    Bradesco’s report will show how Brazilian households are borrowing and using cards, and how it is competing with Santander Brasil for individual customers.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    BANCO SANTANDER (BRASIL) SA earningsThis company

    Santander Brasil’s report will show whether interest from new loans can cover deposit and other funding costs and loan losses.

  2. Time to be announced

    Banco Santander S.A. earningsSAN

    Banco Santander’s report will show its credit standing, which can affect Santander Brasil’s rating and funding terms.

in 22 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced

    AGI Inc earningsAGBK

    AGI Inc’s report will show its lending through payroll deductions, a competitive signal for Santander Brasil’s similar loans to workers and benefit recipients.

in 23 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced

    Inter & Co. Inc. earningsINTR

    Inter & Co.’s report will show whether a digital bank can attract deposits at low cost, sharpening competition for a key source of Santander Brasil’s funding.

in 27 daysMon, Nov 16

  1. Time to be announced

    XP Inc. earningsXP

    XP’s report will show how much investor money its platform attracts, a signal of competition for Santander Brasil’s investment-product and asset-management fees.