Stock daily read

What happened with BAFN today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

BAFN in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

BayFirst Financial Corp.’s business runs through its wholly owned BayFirst National Bank, serving individuals, smaller businesses and professionals in Florida’s Tampa Bay/Sarasota area. Customers use the bank for deposits, payments and borrowing, including business and property loans. Borrowers pay interest, while banking services generate fees. The bank’s earnings depend substantially on the difference between the interest it receives and what it pays for deposits and other funding.

BayFirst exited nationwide SBA 7(a) lending in 2025 and sold part of that loan portfolio. Selling government-guaranteed loan portions had historically been a major source of noninterest income. It still offers USDA and SBA 504 loans through its community banking centers; collecting government guarantees after a borrower defaults requires compliance with agency rules.

The business depends on retaining customer deposits and on borrowers’ ability to repay. A substantial portion of its loans is secured by local real estate, tying it closely to the region’s economy and property values. Banking regulation also limits lending, securities purchases and dividends.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in BAFN’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

BAFN says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

BayFirst's results hinge on Tampa Bay loan returns and deposit costs, plus credit losses on the SBA loans it retained after exiting SBA 7(a) lending and transferring their servicing to Banesco USA.

  • SouthState competes with BayFirst for businesses borrowing money and customers placing deposits in Tampa Bay and Sarasota. Watch its business-loan and deposit rates for signs of the competition BayFirst faces in earning interest on loans and funding them with customer savings.

  • USCB Financial Holdings, Inc. and BayFirst share exposure to Florida small-business loan demand and deposit costs, although USCB serves South Florida rather than Tampa Bay and Sarasota. Watch USCB's deposits from business owners, operators and employees: it uses its business-lending relationships to attract those personal accounts, linking loan growth to deposit funding.

Agenda

in 2 daysWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    SouthState Bank Corporation earningsSSB

    SouthState's report will show how its loan and deposit pricing reflects competition for business borrowers and savers in Tampa Bay and Sarasota, the same markets where BayFirst competes.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s rate decision signals whether borrowing costs across the economy are rising or falling, which can change the interest BayFirst earns on repricing loans and pays on customer deposits and borrowings.

in 10 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    BayFirst Financial Corp. earningsThis company

    BayFirst earns mainly from loan interest after paying for deposits and borrowings, and this report shows whether credit losses and the SBA 7(a) wind-down are eroding that income.